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US Workforce Decline Drivers
Estimated distribution of the 20 million worker shortfall over the next 50 years.
Primary Sources
Indeed CEO says the aging labor market is a way bigger issue than AI
By Brent D. Griffiths You're currently following this author! Want to unfollow? Unsubscribe via the link in your email. Indeed CEO Hisayuki "Deko" Idekoba is worried about the aging workforce. Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images for Semafor World Economy 2026-04-16T09:41:01.232Z Indeed CEO Hisayuki "Deko" Idekoba says people are worried about the wrong thing. More than AI, Idekoba is concerned about the aging US workforce. It's "a way bigger impact than AI today," Idekoba said. Indeed CEO Hisayuki "Deko" Idekoba says all the concerns about AI are missing a much bigger issue in the labor market. "Actually, what is happening in all developed countries, including European countries and the US, what is happening is a big demographic change, an aging labor market," Idekoba, who is also CEO of Indeed and Glassdoor's parent company Recruit Holdings, said on Wednesday during Semafor's World Economy Summit.The struggle to backfill retiring workers "is a way bigger impact than AI impact today," Idekoba said.Idekoba said Indeed's research found that in the US, there will be 20 million fewer workers over the next 50 years. "That's like 5% less workers," he said. Of that decrease, Indeed estimated that 80% will be due to an aging population, and just 20% to AI-related job displacement.Western nations, including the United States, Idekoba said, haven't grappled with the reality that the labor market is shrinking at a time when there are already unfilled jobs in high-skilled trades. He compared the situation to his native Japan. Japan has struggled with a low birth rate for decades, but it has maintained a relatively stable labor force by increasing the number of women in the workforce. Historically, women worked at much lower rates in Japan.Unlike Japan, the US and many Western countries don't have a similar pool of untapped workers to fall back on."In the US, it's happening in Germany, the UK, all of the developed countries, it's gonna be faster," Idekoba said. "That's why what's happening literally is there are so many open positions — construction jobs, plumbers, healthcare jobs, electricians —‚ such fundamentally important jobs, but we don't have a good pipeline."Idekoba said such shortages will quickly become major headaches for consumers."I don't want to wait two months when I find the water leaking," he said. "But that's happening now in the US." Read next
Shrinking working population poses challenges to job market
Demographics, education system need to be optimized to ensure stability: Experts With China's aging and shrinking working population posing challenges for the country's job market and economic development, experts have urged for more efforts to optimize the population structure and education system to ensure social stability and sustainable development. A recent report released by the Central University of Finance and Economics in Beijing said the average age of those in China's labor force was 39.4 years at the end of 2021 — up from 32.2 years in 1985. Five provinces had significantly older working populations, with Heilongjiang topping the list with an average of 41.7 years, followed by two other northeastern provinces, Liaoning with 40.7 and Jilin with 40.5. Chongqing in southwestern China and the eastern province of Zhejiang also had workforce ages well above the national average. The labor force has also shrunk, with the latest figures from the National Bureau of Statistics showing that the nation's working population — aged between 16 and 59 — was about 875.6 million by the end of 2022, accounting for about 62 percent of the total population but down by 6.66 million from the previous year. "The aging problem and the lengthening years of schooling are the main reasons for the increasing average age of the working population," said Pang Shi, director of the Chinese Academy of Personnel Science's department of employment and entrepreneurship in Beijing. "China had 210 million people — roughly 15 percent of the total population — aged over 65 in 2022, while the working population had their average years of schooling lengthened to 10.75 years." She said the working population would continue to shrink. "It's estimated that the working population will be reduced by 7.9 million a year from 2020 to 2030 and be around 825 million by 2030, roughly 58.6 percent of the total population by that time," Pang said. "The aging problem will last quite a long time and is irreversible." She said the decrease in the working population and the aging problem would first pose a shock to the job market and then cause a series of social problems, including hampering economic and technological advancement and increasing the burden on the social security system. Li Qiang, vice-president of online recruitment portal Zhaopin, said the working population should be viewed in terms of both quantity and quality, and China still had demographic dividends that would turn into talent div...
Global Market Outlook | T. Rowe Price
2026 Global Market Outlook: Minds, machines, and market shifts November 2025, On the Horizon What's ahead for markets in 2026 Balancing AI winners with broader opportunities and enduring risks AI (artificial intelligence) is powering measurable change—and this will continue in 2026.
Elko New Market Residents to share water concerns at Farmington forum
Speakers will also address the water issues Elko New Market residents have faced and why those concerns matter to other communities confronting large-scale, high-water-demand development. They will discuss neighborhood impacts, community concerns, and lessons learned through the process.
