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Sri Lanka Foreign Reserve Projections vs Targets
Comparing current reserve levels with the IMF target for March 2027 and the monthly accumulation gap.
Primary Sources
Sri Lanka risks instability without new IMF deal - Sajith
Opposition Leader Sajith Premadasa has warned that Sri Lanka could face renewed financial instability unless the government moves to secure a successor agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).Addressing an event at the SJB headquarters, Premadasa stated that current foreign reserves are insufficient to cover three months of imports and noted that the present IMF programme is due to end in March 2027.He also cautioned that rising global tensions and future foreign debt repayments could place further pressure on the country’s economy and foreign exchange reserves.
Sajith warns of risks ahead : Urges early IMF talks - Newswire
Opposition Leader Sajith Premadasa today called on the government to immediately begin negotiations for a successor programme with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), warning that Sri Lanka is not on track to meet reserve targets under the current arrangement. “I am calling on the government today to begin negotiations for a successor IMF programme. Not to renegotiate the existing arrangement, which is proceeding. A successor programme, the arrangement that takes effect when this one ends,” Premadasa said in a statement. He noted that Sri Lanka currently holds USD 7 billion in gross official reserves, while the IMF’s target for March 2027 stands at USD 14.2 billion. To bridge the gap, the country would need to accumulate USD 600 million in reserves every month for the next twelve months, a pace he said was unrealistic. Premadasa warned that the rupee has weakened by 14% against the dollar over the past year, while petrol prices have climbed to Rs. 410 per litre, nearing the crisis peak of June 2022. He also highlighted risks to Sri Lanka’s USD 8.1 billion in annual remittances, which depend heavily on Gulf employment amid regional instability caused by the Middle East conflict. “Sri Lanka is not in a position of strength indefinitely. These are not distant risks,” he cautioned. Premadasa stressed that Sri Lanka has entered 17 IMF programmes, often only after reserves were depleted and the rupee collapsed, leaving the country with no choice but to accept harsh terms. “We have a choice right now. The window to negotiate from relative strength with USD 7 billion in reserves, a functioning programme, and demonstrated reform credibility. I am asking this government to plan for March 2027 and explain to the country Sri Lanka’s contingency plan when we fail to meet the IMF target,” he said. The Opposition Leader stressed that his proposal was not a retreat from fiscal discipline but a call to secure stability beyond the current programme. (Newswire) 2026-05-21
'Sri Lanka heading toward serious economic risk,' warns Sajith ...
Opposition Leader Sajith Premadasa has warned that Sri Lanka is facing a serious economic risk, alleging that the government is misleading the public with “false statistics” instead of revealing the true state of the economy. He made these remarks during a meeting with social media activists held at the headquarters of the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB). Premadasa claimed that the government, led by President Anura Kumara Dissanayake, continues to conceal the country’s economic vulnerabilities while increasing the prices of essential commodities such as fuel and milk powder. He stated that rising fuel and milk powder prices are clear indicators of the prevailing economic crisis and stressed that the public must be made aware of the situation. According to internationally accepted economic standards, foreign reserves should be sufficient to cover at least three months of imports, Premadasa stated. He pointed out that although the President claims the country has USD 7 billion in reserves, Sri Lanka spends approximately USD 2 billion per month, meaning at least USD 6 billion is required to cover three months of imports. Premadasa further emphasized that the depreciation of the rupee and rising fuel prices are reducing the country’s ability to maintain that level of reserves. Premadasa also claimed that although the reserves include Chinese Yuan worth 1.2 billion, those funds are not readily usable, leaving only around USD 5.8 billion effectively available. Referring to fuel prices, he stated that the price of Octane 95 petrol had reached Rs. 470 per liter in 2022, while it is currently being sold at around Rs. 410 per liter. He warned that any further increase in global oil prices could push the country toward bankruptcy. The Opposition Leader further said that although foreign remittances have increased in recent months, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East could destabilize regional economies and result in job losses for migrant workers, thereby reducing remittance inflows. He also warned that once Sri Lanka’s agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concludes in March 2027, the country will lose the stabilizing support provided by international financial institutions. Premadasa cautioned that a decline in remittances, combined with rising oil prices and further depreciation of the rupee, could trigger a severe economic crisis. He further noted that Sri Lanka’s foreign debt repayments are expected to increase from USD 1.5 billion t...
Sajith warns of risks ahead : Urges early IMF talks - FrontPage
Opposition Leader Sajith Premadasa today called on the government to immediately begin negotiations for a successor programme with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), warning that Sri Lanka is not on track to meet reserve targets under the current arrangement. “I am calling on the government today to begin negotiations for a successor IMF programme. Not to renegotiate the existing arrangement, which is proceeding. A successor programme, the arrangement that takes effect when this one ends,” Premadasa said in a statement. He noted that Sri Lanka currently holds USD 7 billion in gross official reserves, while the IMF’s target for March 2027 stands at USD 14.2 billion. To bridge the gap, the country would need to accumulate USD 600 million in reserves every month for the next twelve months, a pace he said was unrealistic. Premadasa warned that the rupee has weakened by 14% against the dollar over the past year, while petrol prices have climbed to Rs. 410 per litre, nearing the crisis peak of June 2022. He also highlighted risks to Sri Lanka’s USD 8.1 billion in annual remittances, which depend heavily on Gulf employment amid regional instability caused by the Middle East conflict. “Sri Lanka is not in a position of strength indefinitely. These are not distant risks,” he cautioned. Premadasa stressed that Sri Lanka has entered 17 IMF programmes, often only after reserves were depleted and the rupee collapsed, leaving the country with no choice but to accept harsh terms. “We have a choice right now. The window to negotiate from relative strength with USD 7 billion in reserves, a functioning programme, and demonstrated reform credibility. I am asking this government to plan for March 2027 and explain to the country Sri Lanka’s contingency plan when we fail to meet the IMF target,” he said. The Opposition Leader stressed that his proposal was not a retreat from fiscal discipline but a call to secure stability beyond the current programme. (Newswire) The post Sajith warns of risks ahead : Urges early IMF talks appeared first on Newswire.
