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Carbon Emission Projections (MtCO2)
Comparison of previous vs updated AI carbon emission forecasts for the UK.
Primary Sources
Officials hugely underestimated impact of AI datacentres on UK carbon ...
The UK government vastly underestimated the climate impact of artificial intelligence, it has emerged, after officials raised their estimate of carbon emissions from AI by a factor of more than 100.According to new data quietly published this week, energy use by AI datacentres in the UK could cause the emission of up to 123m tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO₂) – about as much as generated by 2.7 million people – over the next 10 years.That latest figure replaces a previous estimate – since deleted – that claimed emissions would reach a maximum of 0.142m tonnes of CO₂ in a single year.There is increasing alarm at the carbon impact of AI and with calls to reduce global emissions to mitigate the climate emergency becoming increasingly urgent.Patrick Galey, the head of investigations for the Global Witness climate campaign, said: “We have a handful of years until our carbon budget is exhausted.“To waste what little bandwidth we have left – when 750 million people worldwide lack access to electricity – assisting some of the richest men ever to hone their plagiarism bots would be a historic idiocy that future generations are unlikely to forgive today’s leaders for.”The latest estimates were revealed in a revision to the UK “compute roadmap”, which sets out the government’s plan “to build a world-class compute ecosystem” for delivering artificial intelligence in the UK – a goal on which the government has staked its hopes for economic growth.However, AI datacentres require huge amounts of electricity to operate – much more than the datacentres used to store online data – and most of that continues to be generated by fossil fuels.According to the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology’s (DSIT) latest estimates, the carbon impact of the planned AI buildout could range from 34m to 123m tonnes of CO₂ – about 0.9% to 3.4% of the UK’s projected total emissions between 2025 and 2035. The lower range of the estimate would depend on greater efficiency in AI models and hardware, and faster decarbonisation of the UK’s energy grid.Officials from the DSIT appear to have made the revision, first reported by Politico, after an investigation by Foxglove, an independent watchdog, and the Carbon Brief news site said they appeared to be a significant underestimate.Foxglove’s head of strategy, Tim Squirrell, said: “The government has a legally binding commitment to reach net zero by 2050. This already sat awkwardly alongside its hell-for-leather embrace of a hyperscale AI data...
UK quietly increases AI emissions forecast 100-fold - POLITICO
News Technology UK The new figures are incompatible with the government’s green targets, campaigners say. Copy Link Copied Share via email Share on X Share on WhatsApp Share on LinkedIn The government said successfully achieving the government’s clean power target “would mean emissions from AI compute would be towards the bottom” of the forecast range. | Christopher Furlong/Getty Images Exclusive April 24, 2026 12:47 pm CET LONDON — The U.K. government admitted carbon emissions from data centers could be 100 times greater than previously thought, prompting fresh concern from MPs and campaigners over the environmental impacts of artificial intelligence. Revised analysis accompanying a government “Compute Roadmap,” published on Thursday, shows U.K. emissions of greenhouse gas from AI could reach 123 million metric tons of CO2 (MtCO2) — the equivalent of 3.4 percent of the U.K.’s emissions between 2025 and 2035. That’s significantly higher than a forecast published in July 2025 of up to 0.142 MtCO2 from AI in 2035. The initial modeling was withdrawn in March in order to “reflect new analysis.” The forecast for water consumption from AI data centers has also been increased, from 1 trillion cubic meters in 2035 to between 0.1–0.5 trillion cubic meters each year over the decade. The revision comes amid heightened scrutiny from MPs and green groups over how the Labour government’s aim to be an “AI maker” aligns with its target of reaching clean power by 2030 and net zero by 2050. “With this quiet release the government has finally admitted that AI data centres are a climate catastrophe, sucking up unbelievable quantities of electricity which would force us to drive new fossil fuel use at the worst possible time,” Tim Bierley, campaign manager at campaign group Global Justice Now, a non-profit campaigning on justice and environmental issues, said. “Expansion on this scale will drive a coach and horses through the U.K.’s climate goals and plans for the energy transition — and all to curry favour with Trump and Silicon Valley. It is extremely risky and it is happening without public consent. This should be a wake-up call.” The government said successfully achieving the government’s clean power target “would mean emissions from AI compute would be towards the bottom” of the forecast range. While the government said AI hardware has become more energy efficient and further improvements are likely, emissions will be “driven by indirect emissions fro...
AI is leaving its mark on our environment, climate and landscapes
AI is leaving its mark on our environment, climate and landscapes Artificial intelligence has become an indispensable part of our world, but our hunger for technology is leaving visible traces on the landscape, with more and more data centres being built. Less visible is the climate and environmental footprint of technology.
AI data centres risk becoming victims of their own success, IEA warns
The "large and rapid power swings" caused by AI training and model use are also driving architectural changes, with data centres increasingly turning to behind-the-meter battery storage, rather than the grid, to meet supply spikes and around 20 to 25GW of BESS set to be installed in data centres by 2030.
