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Layoff Probability Comparison
Comparison of predicted 2026 layoff trends across major prediction platforms.
Primary Sources
Will Tech Layoffs Increase in 2026? Kalshi and Polymarket Think So—Here's What the Data Really Says
A top-trending market on Kalshi currently puts the odds of 2026 seeing more tech layoffs than 2025 at around an 85 percent chance as of publication. Over on Polymarket, users are giving it an even higher 92 percent chance.
Exclusive: Kalshi CEO expects feds to probe "bad actors" on prediction markets
Fast-growing prediction markets will attract fraud and insider trading, Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour acknowledged on " The Axios Show," but he said investigators will "inevitably" expose and punish bad actors. Why it matters: Operators like Kalshi and Polymarket are under pressure to root out suspected incidents of insider trading, particularly on matters like politics, war, sports and entertainment.
Fox integrating Kalshi prediction markets data across news platforms
“More people are watching Kalshi’s forecasts than trading them, which says a lot: our data effectively complements news and polls,” Kalshi CEO and co-founder Tarek Mansour said.
Nevada Judge Extends Ban on Kalshi Prediction Markets - TechStory
Despite the setback in Nevada, Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour remains defiant, calling the simultaneous win in New Jersey a “monumental victory for the industry.” The core of the argument for prediction markets is that they act as decentralized “truth machines,” providing more accurate forecasts for public events than pundits or polls because the participants have “skin in the game.”
