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Projected Oil Price Trends (2026-2027)
Comparison of estimated oil prices under optimistic and worst-case scenarios.
Primary Sources
It's Israel and US that need a regime change - The Island
In the autumn of 1956, Hungary staged the first uprising against the 20th century Soviet behemoth. Seventy years later, in the spring of 2026 Hungary has delivered the first electoral thrashing against 21st century right wing populism in Europe. The 1956 uprising was crushed after seven days. But the opposition scored a landslide victory in Hungary’s parliamentary election held on Sunday, April 12 and. Viktor Orban, Prime Minister since 2010 and the architect of what he proudly called “the illiberal state”, was resoundingly defeated. Orban who has been a pain in the neck for the European Union was a close ally of US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Trump even dispatched his Vice President JD Vance to Budapest to campaign for Orban. After Orban’s defeat, Trump and his MAGA followers may be having nightmares about the US midterm elections in November. Similarly, Orban’s defeat has reportedly caused “great concern in the halls of power in Jerusalem.” Netanyahu has lost his only ally in the European Union and the opposition victory in Hungary does not augur well for his own electoral prospects in the Israeli elections due in October. Ceasefire Hopes Trump and Netanyahu have bigger things to worry about in the Middle East and among their own political bases. Trump is going bonkers, blasphemously imitating Christ and badmouthing the Pope, launching a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz and strong arming more talks in Islamabad. Netanyahu has been forced to sit on his hands, pausing his fight against Iran while pursuing peace talks with Lebanon. The leaders and diplomats from Pakistan, Egypt and Turkey are shuttling around drumming up support for another round of talks in Islamabad and a prolonged extension of the ceasefire. Further talks in Islamabad and potential extension of the ceasefire received a new boost by Trump’s announcement of a new 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. The background to this development appears to be Iran’s insistence on having this secondary ceasefire, and Trump insisting on ceasefire abidance by Hezbollah in return for his ordering Netanyahu to stop his brutal ‘lawn mowing’ in Lebanon. All of this might seem to augur well for a potential extension of the primary ceasefire between the US and Iran. There are also reports of the narrowing of gap between the two parties – involving a potential moratorium on Iran’s uranium enrichment, the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran’s access to its ...
Iran's War With Israel and the United States
Updated April 16, 2026 On February 28, the United States and Israel attacked Iran after weeks of military buildup and threats from President Trump. Large-scale strikes targeted Iranian military assets and the Islamic Republic’s top leadership, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Tehran’s Assembly of Experts appointed Ali Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei, to succeed him. Iran has retaliated by targeting U.S. military facilities in the region, Israel, and energy and civilian infrastructure in the Gulf states. Israel launched a military offensive into southern Lebanon after Hezbollah fired rockets at Israeli territory, while the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen launched ballistic missiles at Israel—both in solidarity with Iran amid the broader regional war. Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations stated that more than 1,500 civilians have been killed so far, including at least 175 people who were killed by a reported U.S. strike on an Iranian elementary school, and up to 3.2 million have been displaced. Thirteen U.S. service members have been killed. Trump has issued conflicting statements on U.S. military objectives and the trajectory of the conflict. The attack quickly escalated into a regional war with widespread ramifications for critical supply chains and humanitarian aid. Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused a global energy shock, prompting the International Energy Agency to release four hundred million barrels from its strategic reserve. History of Iran’s Nuclear Program Iran has pursued a nuclear program since at least 1957, with varying degrees of success. During a war with Iraq, Iran decided to develop nuclear weapons to ensure its security in the late 1980s. Consequently, Iran pursued agreements with China and Russia to support the program’s research throughout the 1990s. In the summer of 2002, the National Council of Resistance of Iran, an umbrella organization made up of Iranian dissident groups, exposed the existence of two Iranian nuclear sites that were hidden from the IAEA. By 2003, diplomats launched an intensive effort to halt Iran’s nuclear program. Iran agreed, insisting only on keeping its centrifuges for nuclear energy. However, it did not follow through on its commitment to transparent reporting to the IAEA and continued covert activities, leading to a June 2004 rebuke and a September 2005 finding of non-compliance by the IAEA, paving the way for a future referral to the UN Security Council (UNSC). In...
The Iran Strikes, Explained: How We Got Here and What It Means
The United States and Israel launched coordinated military operations against the Iranian regime on February 28, 2026. The action, focused on the regime's nuclear facilities, military infrastructure, and leadership, followed a conclusion reached in Washington and Jerusalem that diplomacy had been exhausted, and that a nuclear-armed Iran posed an unacceptable security threat to America, Israel ...
The US-Israel War against Iran and the Lebanese Front
The fact that the US-Israeli coalition directly targeted the Supreme Leader in its war against Iran, however, made it imperative for Hizballah to engage in the process actively.



