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Russian Economic Indicators Q1
Year-on-year changes in key Russian economic sectors for early months of the year.
Primary Sources
Putin Demands Answers as Russia's Economy Undershoots Expectations
President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday demanded explanations from the government and Central Bank over why Russia’s economy is performing worse than expected this year, calling for urgent measures to revive growth in his second public complaint about economic weakness in a month. According to the Economic Development Ministry, GDP in January and February was 1.8% lower than in the same period last year. The Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Economic Forecasting (INP) estimated a 1.5% year-on-year contraction for the first quarter, while the Central Bank had previously forecast GDP growth of 1.6% over the same period. The ministry attributed part of the decline to calendar effects, noting that January had two fewer working days and February one fewer than a year earlier. Adjusted for this, GDP was flat year-on-year in January and rose 0.3% in February. Putin dismissed the explanation as insufficient. “These are objective circumstances, of course, but it is clear they are far from the only factors determining business and investment activity in the country,” he said, pointing to declines in manufacturing, overall industrial output and construction. Construction, a key sector, contracted sharply, falling 16% year-on-year in January and 14% in February, according to official statistics. Russia’s economic slowdown, driven by falling investment, weak business activity and declining oil and gas revenues, is raising concerns about budget stability and the sustainability of growth as high interest rates and war-related distortions weigh on the outlook. The Central Bank's business climate indicator stood at 0.2 points in January before slipping to -0.1 in February, with zero marking the line between expansion and contraction. Separate monitoring of financial flows showed a sharp and deepening drop in incoming payments across most sectors during the first quarter. The slowdown is also straining public finances, as oil and gas revenues in the first quarter were down 45% compared with a year earlier, while non-oil revenues rose just 7% despite increases in VAT and excise duties. Government spending, meanwhile, jumped 17%. As a result, the budget deficit reached 4.58 trillion rubles ($60.5 billion), already exceeding the full-year target. Economists warn that weaker growth, falling demand and higher debt servicing costs will squeeze corporate profits and investment. The Gaidar Institute has cautioned that tax revenues may fall short of government expectations thi...
Trump Administration's Temporary Reprieve on Russian Oil Expires
AdvertisementSKIP ADVERTISEMENTYou have a preview view of this article while we are checking your access. When we have confirmed access, the full article content will load.A sanctions waiver aimed at keeping global oil prices down had allowed Moscow to sell oil currently at sea.Listen · 3:42 min An oil terminal in the port of St. Petersburg, Russia. Credit...Olga Maltseva/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesApril 13, 2026The United States did not extend a sanctions exemption that had allowed the sale of some Russian oil, stepping back from a contentious plan to try and contain global crude prices that was also providing an economic windfall to Moscow.The White House has been working to bring more oil to world markets since the start of the war in the Middle East, which caused crude prices to surge above $100 a barrel. President Trump over the weekend threatened to prevent Iran from profiting from oil exports by restricting oil tankers from traveling through the Strait of Hormuz. The price of oil has soared by more than 50 percent since the war began in late February.The Treasury Department last month gave both Russia and Iran one-month reprieves on sanctions that had restricted their oil sales, allowing buyers around the world to legally purchase oil that the United States had blacklisted. The sanctions waiver on Russia expired on Saturday morning, and the temporary license allowing Iran to sell oil expires on April 19.Oil prices rose again on Monday after Mr. Trump’s vow to impose the blockade to prevent Iran from dictating who can purchase crude.It remains to be seen whether the administration will allow more Russian and Iranian oil to flow given the pain that higher oil prices are causing American consumers.Over the weekend, Mr. Trump also downplayed the economic effects of the war, which have been a political liability for him. Asked if oil and gas prices could fall by the midterm elections in November, he said they “could be the same or maybe a little bit higher” — an indication that the economic turmoil of the war could linger for months, even if a lasting peace is reached.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe.AdvertisementSKIP ADVERTISEMENT
Russia's Oil Windfall From Middle East War Keeps Growing
In April alone, Russia's revenue from the sector may reach 900 billion to 950 billion rubles, up from 617 billion rubles in March, she said. While the country is reaping benefits from the war in the Middle East, it's also continuing to suffer repeated Ukrainian strikes on its oil infrastructure, which could undermine its recent windfall.
Forecast for Russia's oil production in 2026 is 515 mln tones, but it ...
Novak previously said that oil and condensate production in Russia amounted to 512 million tonnes in 2025. The authorities therefore currently forecast an increase in this figure within 1% in 2026. At the end of March, Novak said that Russian companies have the ability to increase oil production, but this requires investment and time.
