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Projected vs. Historical Economic Growth
Comparison of economic outlook shifts for the Russian economy.
Primary Sources
Russia Downgrades 2026 GDP Growth to 0.4% as Wartime Economic Boom Fades
The Russian government significantly slashed its economic growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027, highlighting structural challenges and a shift to low-speed adjustment amid sanctions, high rates, and exhausted military spending impacts.
Russia Cuts 2026 Growth Forecast as Oil Revenues and Wartime Pressures ...
Russia sharply downgraded its economic growth forecast for 2026, signaling the government is bracing for a prolonged slowdown as weaker oil revenues, high inflation and heavy wartime spending strain the economy. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said the government now expects gross domestic product to grow by just 0.4% next year, down from a previous forecast of 1.3%. The revised outlook, announced Tuesday, points to mounting concerns inside the government over the durability of Russia’s wartime economic model after more than four years of fighting in Ukraine. The economy contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter, according to the Economic Development Ministry, even as President Vladimir Putin has urged officials and the Central Bank to accelerate growth. Economist Andrei Gnidchenko of the CMAKP analytical center described the new forecast as a surprise after reviewing projections from major Russian and international institutions earlier this month. Novak said the forecast was based on “conservative” assumptions, including an average Russian oil price of $59 per barrel this year and $50 per barrel over the following three years. Those assumptions are even lower than the Central Bank’s estimates. In April, the Central Bank raised its own forecast to $65 per barrel for this year and $55 for 2027-2028. Novak said the lower oil-price assumptions would help contain budget spending at a time when state revenues — hit by a strong ruble and weaker oil prices — are falling while expenditure demands, including military spending, continue to rise. Under the government’s framework, lower baseline oil-and-gas revenues would limit planned spending, while any additional energy income would be directed into the National Wealth Fund. Economist Yegor Susin said the figures appeared to be “not exactly a forecast, but rather assumptions for drafting the budget.” “The oil-and-gas component of the budget implies a significant reduction in spending, although in the autumn, of course, everything will be revised again depending on how conditions change,” Susin wrote. Dmitry Polevoy, another economist, said the “apparently higher level of budget spending” remained the main source of uncertainty and risk for the outlook. The government forecast also points to a difficult year ahead for households and businesses. Investment is expected to continue falling this year, while inflation is projected to remain elevated at 5.2%. Growth in Russians’ real incomes is forecast to slow to 1....
Russia cuts 2026 growth forecast to 0.4% amid sanctions
Russia has reduced its 2026 growth forecast to 0.4% from 1.3%, citing prolonged sanctions and war-related spending as key factors straining its $3 trillion economy.
Kremlin plays down Russian economic forecast downgrades
Russia's $3 trillion economy, hit by the war in Ukraine, Western sanctions and high interest rates, contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter, marking its first quarterly decline since early 2023 ...
