Vetted by NeuralPress's Multi-Agent Verifier for strict factual validity and event relevance. Our compliance engine cross-checks and filters search results to ensure zero false correlations or misleading content.
China GDP Growth Forecasts 2026
Projected GDP growth percentages for the quarters and full year of 2026.
Primary Sources
Ceasefire rally; China GDP and US earnings ahead | Market Navigator
Summary What happened last week: A Middle East ceasefire sparked a broad market rally, but the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. China's deflation risks eased materially while US stagflation concerns deepened.Markets in focus: US equities extended their relief rally led by technology; the Hang Seng Index lagged regional peers; crude oil posted its steepest weekly decline since 2020.The week ahead: China Q1 GDP and key economic data scheduled. Q1 earnings season opens with major US banks. What happened last week Middle East ceasefire, strait still closed: A two-week ceasefire prompted a sharp market rally. However, reports of continued attacks cast doubt on its durability, and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. US-Iran talks in Islamabad over the weekend failed to reach a resolution; US threatened to block the Strait on Monday. Brent crude oil surged 8% on Monday open. China prices turn a corner: China's consumer price index (CPI) held in positive territory at 1.0% year-on-year (YoY) in March, easing from the Lunar New Year-inflated 1.3% in February. More notably, the producer price index (PPI) turned positive for the first time in 41 months, rising 0.5% YoY. Combined with recent data showing expanding activity across manufacturing and services, the Chinese economy is showing broadening recovery momentum. US inflation elevated before the war: The Federal Reserve's (Fed) preferred inflation gauge, core personal consumption expenditures (PCE), held at 0.4% month-on-month (MoM) in February — before the conflict. Headline CPI surged 0.9% MoM in March, the largest increase since June 2022, driven by the energy price spike. Stripping out food and energy, core CPI rose a contained 0.2%. Market pricing for a 2026 rate hike has been fully unwound. US consumer sentiment deteriorates: Inflation-adjusted spending rose just 0.1% MoM, while real average hourly wages grew only 0.3% YoY — the slowest pace since 2023. University of Michigan consumer sentiment fell to a historic low of 47.6 in April. Together, these indicators point to a meaningful slowdown in household spending and heightened stagflation risk. Markets in focus US equities extend relief rally US equity markets extended their ceasefire-driven market rally last week, with the Nasdaq 100 gaining 4.5% — fully recouping losses sustained since the conflict began on 28 February — while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones advanced 3.6% and 3.0% respectively. Communication services, technology and consumer dis...
China poised for Q1 GDP growth rebound but Iran war dims 2026 ...
Item 1 of 4 An employee works on the production line manufacturing pipe-fitting valves at a factory in Wenzhou, Zhejiang province, China January 14, 2026. REUTERS/Josh Arslan/File Photo[1/4]An employee works on the production line manufacturing pipe-fitting valves at a factory in Wenzhou, Zhejiang province, China January 14, 2026. REUTERS/Josh Arslan/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tabSummaryChina Q1 GDP seen growing 4.8%, vs 4.5% in Q4GDP growth seen at 4.6% in 2026, 4.5% in 2027Inflation seen at 1.0% in 2026, same pace in 2027C.bank seen keeping LPR steady in 2026, cutting RRR in Q3 2026BEIJING, April 13 (Reuters) - China's economy likely regained some momentum in the first quarter on solid exports, but growth is expected to cool over the rest of 2026 as the Middle East crisis threatens to choke corporate profits and sap overseas demand, a Reuters poll showed.Gross domestic product growth in the first quarter is forecast at 4.8% from a year earlier, quickening from a three-year low of 4.5% in the October–December quarter, a Reuters poll of 50 economists showed. Sign up here.Growth is expected to slow to 4.7% in the second quarter, dragging the full-year expansion to 4.6% in 2026 from last year’s 5.0%, according to the median forecast in the poll, broadly in line with the official target of 4.5%–5.0%.China has so far absorbed the economic shock from the Iran war with limited disruption, cushioned by large oil reserves, a diversified energy mix and tight price controls. But economists warn that persistently higher oil prices are already lifting input costs and squeezing profits at a time when domestic demand remains weak.China's exports, a key pillar of growth, could falter if the conflict drags on and undermines the global economy, they added."Higher oil prices would hit China’s economy through terms of trade shock and downstream margin squeeze," analysts at Morgan Stanley said in a note."But unlike many other net oil importing countries, which face production disruptions owing to energy shortage and constrained policy space amid elevated inflation, China is better positioned."Strains are nonetheless starting to show. China's factory‑gate prices rose in March for the first time in more than three years, an early signal that energy-driven cost pressures are seeping into the world's second-largest economy and threatening already thin corporate margins.Data due out on Tuesday are expected to show China's export growth cooled in Mar...
China GDP and Trade Balance: Global Economic Check - Orbex
China is expected to experience a substantial economic slowdown in the first three months of the year. Q1 GDP is forecast at 0.8%, down from 1.2% in the fourth ...
Economic Letter from Asia: A Shifting Consensus - Haver Analytics
3 hours ago ... Attention now turns to China's upcoming Q1 GDP release and the full slate of monthly data due later this week (chart 6). Middle east conflict developments Crude ...
