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Impact of Crisis on Monthly Oil Exports

Comparison of oil export decline across Gulf nations from February to March

Primary Sources

aljazeera.com
Empty ships and shut wells: Why the Iran war oil crisis is not over yet ...

After 40 days of fighting, the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire on Wednesday morning, with negotiations expected to begin on Friday in Pakistan’s capital, Islamabad.One of the key points in Iran’s 10‑point proposal is allowing shipping to resume through the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 percent of the world’s oil and gas is shipped during peacetime, but which has been in effect closed almost since the start of the war, causing global oil and gas prices to soar.Following the announcement, oil prices – which remained well above $110 for much of the war – dropped to $92 on Wednesday.Over the past six weeks, more than 100 countries have raised prices at petrol pumps. Several governments, mostly in Asia, have declared national energy emergencies and introduced strict measures to limit consumption, including work-from-home policies, shorter working weeks, fuel rationing and curfews.Continued uncertainty and logistical limitationsWhile reopening the Strait of Hormuz provides a vital release valve for energy, delays in restarting production and transport mean the energy crisis is far from over.For ships to continue operating, they need certainty about security during the next two weeks of the ceasefire.Even with the waterway reopened, it will take weeks for large oil tankers – now scattered thousands of miles away – to return to the Gulf to collect the millions of barrels sitting in large reservoirs.With very few tankers able to load or unload and their onshore storage full, producers began shutting wells, causing regional oil output to plummet despite efforts to reroute limited volumes via overland pipelines. Restarting the wells is not like flipping a switch; it is expensive and technically demanding.Economists and agricultural experts warn that the true impact on grocery bills will likely persist throughout 2026 and into 2027. Additionally, it will take years for the Gulf energy industry to repair facilities damaged or destroyed during the war.How much oil has been lost due to the Iran war?Shipping data from Kpler, a data and analytics firm which tracks commodity markets, analysed by Al Jazeera’s Open Source Unit, show that combined exports from Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates fell from 469 million barrels in February to 263 million barrels in March – a decline of 206 million barrels, or 44 percent.The drop was sharp but uneven across the six countries, with some nations hit far harder than others, ...

aljazeera.com
energypolicy.columbia.edu
The war in Iran has caused the biggest oil supply disruption in history ...

News The Middle East's energy infrastructure was not designed for this type of crisis, and the damage might long outlast the war. Our Work Relevant Publications The Iran Shock Within days of the initial U.S. and Israeli attack on Iran on February 28, 2026, the world was plunged into an energy crisis. Once Again, Energy Is Power Energy has reemerged this year as a central force shaping our world—both a geopolitical weapon and an economic fault line. Why Russia Can’t Capitalize on the Iran War’s Gas Shock When the Iran War disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and tightened global gas balances, a familiar assumption quickly resurfaced: Russia, possessing the largest proven natural gas reserves in the world, would inevitably emerge as one of the principal beneficiaries. See All Work

energypolicy.columbia.edu
time.com
The Strait of Hormuz Crisis Is Driving a Wave of Global Energy ... - TIME

Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important energy transit routes, has caused a global oil shortage that is already affecting consumers from Europe to ...

time.com
theconversation.com
Does the Iran ceasefire mean the fuel crisis is over? Not even close

Does this mean the fuel crisis is over? Not by half. In its response to US-Israeli bombing, Iran didn't just block the strait - it targeted the oil and gas infrastructure of its neighbours.

theconversation.com