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Poland's central bank chief sees inflation risks contained, but rate ...
Speaking at a press conference, Glapiński noted that April consumer price inflation of 3.2% remains within the National Bank of Poland's (NBP) target range, whose upper bound stands at 3.5%, though he acknowledged a "certain rise in core inflation". The governor cited three factors constraining inflation risk. First, consumer demand is not accelerating as it did in the post-pandemic period. "Now, nothing like that is happening", he said. He also noted that monthly data suggest GDP growth slowed in the first quarter of 2026, with the NBP now projecting full-year growth of 3.5%, down from an earlier forecast of 4%. Second, wage growth in the enterprise sector slowed in the first quarter to its lowest level in five years, accompanied by declining employment in industry. Third, interest rates in Poland and globally are "significantly higher" than at the onset of the previous energy crisis, when rates stood at 0.5%. "Relatively high interest rates do not favor inflation rebounding upward", Glapiński said. Rate hikes grow more likely The governor warned that rate cuts are now "very unlikely", while the probability of hikes has risen since the NBP's April meeting. "Rate hikes are possible. Every member of the Monetary Policy Council accepts that if inflation continues to rise, there will of course be hikes", he said, adding that the council "will not hesitate" to act swiftly if needed. Glapiński flagged potential risks to the inflation outlook, including possible increases in VAT and fuel excise taxes — decisions he said depend on government policy. He also pointed to geopolitical uncertainty and a global commodity shock as factors warranting caution, and said the council's decision to hold rates steady at its latest meeting was "fully justified" given the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. (jh) Source: PAP
Polish Central Banker Wnorowski: Rising Inflation Not Enough to ... - Cgtn
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Labor market slack, household inequality, and monetary policy
This paper examines the non-linear impact of unemployment levels on the effectiveness of monetary policy. Using a standard heterogeneous-agent model with uninsured income risk, integrated with a canonical frictional labor market framework, I compare two versions of the model calibrated to reflect high- and low-unemployment regimes in the Polish economy. The findings reveal that the output ...
Alarming data on Polish debt. There is a new report
The state budget assumes a deficit exceeding 5% of GDP, which in combination with ambitious economic forecasts can be difficult to implement. If the current trend continues, Poland may be among the countries with a critical financial situation that must count on greater control from international creditors.
