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Brent Crude Oil Price Trend ($/barrel)
Rising trend of global oil prices due to geopolitical tension.
Primary Sources
Global Rate Path Veers Higher in Wake of Another Trump Shock
Donald Trump’s second big shock to the world economy since he returned to the White House looks increasingly likely to force central banks into a new round of tightening. The US president’s war on Iran has already produced an initial bout of inflation, with further energy-related pressure in the pipeline, putting global policymakers on alert for possible interest-rate hikes. That contrasts with this time last year, when his so-called “Liberation Day” tariffs left officials bracing for a synchronized hit to growth.
JP Morgan Chase head warns of unexpected global interest rate shocks ...
The head of the world’s biggest bank, JPMorgan Chase, has warned the world will face “significant” interest rate shocks as a consequence of Donald Trump’s war on Iran.Jamie Dimon said spiralling oil and gas prices, which have skyrocketed following Iran’s blockade of the key shipping lane, the Strait of Hormuz, and its attacks on regional energy infrastructure, would lead to “stickier” inflation that could push up interest rates. Higher interest rates mean more costly borrowing of money for loans and investments, as well as mortgages, government borrowing costs and more. They are also associated with lower economic growth, as firms do not spend as much on new projects or hiring, and consumers spend less on non-essential items as they manage household finances amid rising essential bills.Mr Dimon warned: “Now, because of the war in Iran, we additionally face the potential for significant ongoing oil and commodity price shocks, along with the reshaping of global supply chains, which may lead to stickier inflation and ultimately higher interest rates than markets currently expect.“Nations that are heavily dependent upon imported energy are already seeing the effects. And it’s not just energy, it’s commodity products that are byproducts of oil and gas, like fertiliser and helium.“Given our complex global supply chains, countries are experiencing disruptions in shipbuilding, food and farming, among others.“The outcome of current geopolitical events may very well be the defining factor in how the future global economic order unfolds – then again, it may not.”JPMorgan Chase chair Jamie Dimon says the outcome of various conflicts ‘may very well be the defining factor in how the future global economic order unfolds’ (AFP/Getty)The Brent crude oil benchmark price fell to below $100 at the start of April, but has since risen once more. On Tuesday, it sits at $110 (£83). Get a free fractional share worth up to £100.Capital at risk.Terms and conditions apply.Go to websiteADVERTISEMENTGet a free fractional share worth up to £100.Capital at risk.Terms and conditions apply.Go to websiteADVERTISEMENTLast month, the Bank of England (BoE) voted 9-0 to maintain interest rates at 3.75 per cent, due to the uncertainty over the war in the Middle East, which had only just started. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), which votes on any such rate changes, is set to meet again on 30 April, with a big division currently visible between economists and market rates.Traders in money mar...
Global banks scale back China rate-cut calls, see policy rate on hold ...
Major global investment banks now expect China to keep official interest rates steady this year, scaling back earlier rate-cut calls, as the impact from the Middle East conflict appears limited ...
Federal Reserve Board - Economic Research
A large-scale estimated general equilibrium model of the U.S. economy for FRB/US Model Yield Curve Models and Data: Models of daily yield curves, and a dynamic term structure model of Treasury yields Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF): Information on families' balance sheets, pensions, income, and demographic characteristics Economic Research Data:
