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Macroeconomic Impact of Rising Defense Costs

Projected fiscal challenges resulting from increased military allocations.

Primary Sources

imf.org
defense spending: macroeconomic consequences and trade-offs

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imf.org
m.economictimes.com
Global Market: Emerging markets lean on global funds, but face ...

SynopsisEmerging economies now depend heavily on global investors like hedge funds for funding. This shift, driven by a retreat of traditional banks, has doubled portfolio investment share to 80%. While this provided cheaper, longer-term funding, it also increased vulnerability to sudden capital outflows. Economies with shallow markets face greater risks from these volatile flows.iStockEmerging markets are increasingly dependent on global portfolio investors, a shift doubling their reliance over two decades.Emerging market economies are increasingly relying on global investors such as hedge funds, pension funds and insurance firms for their external financing needs, a shift that is leaving them more exposed to sudden capital flight during periods of stress, according to a report by the International Monetary Fund cited by Reuters.The report highlights a structural transformation in the way emerging markets fund themselves. Over the past two decades, the share of foreign capital coming from portfolio investors has doubled to about 80%, reflecting a retreat by traditional bank lenders in the aftermath of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. In that time, emerging markets have attracted close to $4 trillion in cumulative inflows, underscoring the scale of dependence on market-based financing.According to Reuters, the IMF noted that this growing reliance on portfolio flows has delivered clear benefits. Abundant global liquidity has enabled emerging economies to access funding at lower costs and with longer maturities, helping governments and companies manage their borrowing profiles more efficiently.However, the same source of funding has also become more volatile. The IMF report warned, that portfolio investors have grown increasingly sensitive to global financial conditions since the financial crisis, reacting quickly to shifts in risk sentiment. This behavior makes countries dependent on such flows more vulnerable to abrupt reversals when global markets turn.Reuters cited the IMF as saying that economies and corporations relying heavily on these investors face heightened exposure to external shocks. Hedge funds and other investment funds, in particular, tend to respond more aggressively to risk compared with other types of investors. The risks are even more pronounced in countries with relatively shallow financial markets and limited policy flexibility.The report also pointed to the broader macroeconomic consequences of sudden outflows. A sharp decline in port...

m.economictimes.com
edwardconard.com
Understanding Global Imbalances - Edward Conard

The IMF finds that as of 2024, the US, China, Germany, and Japan accounted for ~2/3rds of global imbalances. The latter three held net foreign assets ...

edwardconard.com
m.economictimes.com
Global Market | IMF warns of lasting economic impact from war ...

The IMF warned that the Middle East conflict could slow global growth while fuelling inflation due to energy supply disruptions. With oil prices surging and ...

m.economictimes.com