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Global Growth Projections
Comparison of projected global GDP growth rates.
Primary Sources
IMF Raises Global Economic Outlook as Trade Tensions Ease
The IMF modestly raised its global and U.S. growth forecast for 2025 and 2026, citing easing inflation, improved financial conditions and reduced trade tensions.
Global Recession Risk Lingers Despite Ceasefire‑Driven Market Calm
Optimism related to the ceasefire in the Middle East has eased market stress on Wednesday, but data and expert forecasts from the IMF, World Bank and World Economic Forum point to persistent downside risks to global growth.Financial markets received a boost following the announcement of a conditional ceasefire involving the U.S., Iran and Israel, which included plans to partially reopen the strategically critical Strait of Hormuz, long a flashpoint for global energy supply fears. The Guardian reported that crude oil prices plunged over 15% and global stocks climbed sharply in response. But economists and international institutions stress that the longer‑term prospects for the world economy remain uncertain and fragile. Moreover, uncertainty remains about the navigability of the waterway as tensions run high despite the announcement.According to the World Economic Forum's Global Risks Report 2026, economic downturn and "geoeconomic" confrontation, a term describing the use of economic policy as a strategic tool, climbed sharply in global risk rankings, underscoring how economic weakness and geopolitical rivalry could intersect to trigger broader instability. The report highlights that this is now seen as the most likely trigger of a global crisis over the next two years, even above armed conflict.The WEF's findings reflect concerns that structural economic challenges, such as rising debt, fragmented global supply chains and weakening multilateral cooperation, continue to intensify. The report states that economic risks overall have increased more than any other risk category, with indicators like inflation and asset bubble vulnerability climbing in severity.According to the World Bank's Global Economic Prospects report, global growth is projected to remain modest at around 2.6% in 2026 before edging slightly higher in 2027. While this pace keeps the world economy in expansion rather than contraction, it represents some of the slowest growth rates outside major downturns since the 1960s, and is unlikely to absorb shocks without significant cost. The World Bank report also cautions that this "weak momentum" comes with record public and private debt burdens in many economies.Indermit Gill, World Bank Group Chief Economist, noted in a recent World Bank report that progress in global income growth masks uneven outcomes, with one in four developing economies poorer now than before 2019, and warned policymakers to tackle weakness in investment, trade and fiscal cr...
PNC Economics Research
PNC's Economics Research department provides analysis and forecasts of national, regional and global economic and financial trends provided in a variety of publications.
Conflict Hits MENAAP Economies, Underscoring Need for Action to Boost ...
The latest conflict in the Middle East has taken a serious and immediate economic toll on countries in the surrounding region. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and destruction of energy and public infrastructure have disrupted markets, increased financial volatility, and weakened the 2026 growth outlook, according to the latest edition of the World Bank Group's Economic Update for the ...
