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Inflation Expectations - Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Background How to interpret the latest data and charts The 10-Year Expected Inflation Estimate The 10-year expected inflation estimate that we report is the rate that inflation is expected to average over the next 10 years. Chart 1: Ten-Year Expected Inflation and Real and Inflation Risk Premia This chart shows the model’s estimates of the inflation risk premium, the real risk premium, and the real interest rate. The inflation risk premium is a measure of the premium investors require for the possibility that inflation may rise or fall more than they expect over the period in which they hold a bond. Similarly, the real risk premium is a measure of the compensation investors require for holding real (inflation-protected) bonds over some period, given the fact that future short-term rates might be different from what they expect. Both the real risk premium and the inflation risk premium can be interpreted as investors’ assessment of risk. In the case of the real risk premium, it is an assessment of the risk of unexpected changes in the real interest rate, and in the case of the inflation risk premium, it is an assessment of the risk of unexpected changes in inflation. Chart 2: Ten-Year TIPS Yields versus Real Yields This chart compares the model’s estimate of 10-year real interest rates against TIPS yields. The comparison can be interpreted as illustrating the importance of factors not in the model (taxes, liquidity, the embedded option) for the TIPS market. As TIPS are not used in the model, it also serves as a simple out-of-sample test for the model. Chart 3: Expected Inflation Term Structure This chart shows the model’s estimates for expected inflation at horizons of 1 to 30 years at three points in time: the current month, the previous month, and the previous year. Historical data The Inflation Expectations estimates use current and past inflation data from the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Because the October 2025 CPI value from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will not be released, the Inflation Expectations estimates use the Cleveland Fed’s Inflation Nowcasting estimate for the October 2025 CPI number. The December 2025 Inflation Expectations estimates use the November 2025 CPI numbers from the BLS. Excel: This spreadsheet contains inflation expectations model’s output from 1982 to the present. Output includes expected inflation for horizons from 1 year to 30 years, the real risk premium, the inflation risk premium, and the real interest rate. Revi...
Fed officials see higher risk in inflation and labor market, while the ...
HomeNewsAnalysisPortfolioPremiumU.S. EconomyTop NewsComments(12)ImagePixelMost Federal Reserve officials judged that progress toward the central bank's 2% inflation objective could be slower than previously expected due to higher oil prices from the Iran conflict following the effects of tariffs imposed last year, according to the minutes ofTo ensure this doesn’t happen in the future, please enable Javascript and cookies in your browser.If you have an ad-blocker enabled you may be blocked from proceeding. Please disable your ad-blocker and refresh.
Federal Reserve minutes suggest continued caution, yet increasingly ...
Fed Policy Outlook Some participants pushed back the timing for possible cuts, due to concerns about persistent inflation. The Summary of Economic Projections showed a higher inflation path into 2026 and a slightly higher longer-run rate. The minutes noted softer growth expectations than earlier in the year and more attention to labour market ...
Federal Reserve Still Saw Rate Cuts as a Possibility in March Meeting
The Federal Reserve tried to look beyond the Iran war at its March meeting, holding to the belief that inflation could moderate enough after initial oil price and import tariff shocks, minutes of ...
