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Economic Contribution Estimates
Projected contribution of AI capex to US GDP growth.
Primary Sources
The AI Boom Is Cushioning the US Economy From Iran War Impact
April 30, 2026 at 4:30 PM UTCThe AI growth engine was on full display in the first quarter, powering the US economy through fresh headwinds from a war-driven surge in inflation. The conflict in the Middle East has sent oil prices soaring, disrupted global supply chains and injected uncertainty into the outlook. Even so, weary consumers — who have historically served as the primary engine of economic growth — have continued to spend.
US economy showed solid growth in the first quarter as Iran war began - CNN
Washington — The US economy picked up steam in the beginning of the year as the United States and Israel launched a destabilizing war with Iran that has jacked up prices and is still ongoing. Gross domestic product, which measures all the goods and services produced in the economy, registered a 2% annualized rate in the January-through-March period, the Commerce Department said Thursday, up sharply from the fourth quarter’s 0.5%. That was slightly lower than the 2.3% rate economists projected in a poll by data firm FactSet. GDP is adjusted for seasonal swings and inflation. US economic growth in the first quarter was boosted by resilient consumer spending, a massive uptick in business investment, higher exports (which contribute to GDP), and government outlays that came back online after the longest government shutdown on record in the prior quarter. A key gauge of underlying demand in the economy even strengthened sharply in the first three months of the year. The first-quarter figure shows the economy headed into the Iran war on strong footing, boosted by bigger tax returns that helped offset the initial uptick in prices at the pump. So far, most companies have also reported robust first-quarter earnings, and while the Iran war initially spooked investors, the stock market eventually rebounded, with major indexes now at or near record highs. But the Middle East conflict is now in its ninth week, and economists broadly agree that the longer it lasts, the more damage it will inflict on the US economy. It’s also prompting the Federal Reserve to delay any further rate cuts, with global oil prices still firmly above $100 a gallon, which is keeping US gas prices elevated. “As long as the economy continues to grow and companies are able to grow earnings, we can see higher stock prices even in the face of higher energy prices and inflation,” Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management, said in an analyst note Thursday. “However, the longer the war drags on, the more investors will grow nervous and we could see some pullbacks as fears ebb and flow.” Consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of the US economy, grew at an annualized rate of 1.6% in the first quarter, down slightly from the fourth quarter’s 1.9%. The increase was exclusively driven by spending on services, rather than on goods, which edged lower during the quarter. However, when taking into account the 4.5% increase in prices during the quarter, re...
US economic growth rebounds 2% as consumer spending slows amid Iran war ...
US gross domestic product (GDP) accelerated to an annual rate of 2% in the first three months of 2026, though consumer spending is slowing as the war with Iran continues to impact energy prices.
Tax Refunds and AI Boom Have Offset Some US Economic Pain From Iran War ...
Americans are paying for the war in Iran with every visit to the gas station, but some of the damage to the U.S. economy is being offset — for now anyway — by big tax refunds and an investment ...
