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Canada's GDP outlook slashed by 20% over Iran war 'uncertainty'
The ongoing war in the Middle East has added “another layer of uncertainty” to Canada’s economic outlook, Deloitte Canada said Thursday while cutting its GDP projection for the year by 20 per cent. While the economy is still expected to grow modestly, the firm’s spring economic outlook now estimates 1.2 per cent growth in 2026, down from the 1.5 per cent estimated in January as well as last year’s 1.7 per cent gain.Dawn Desjardins, Deloitte’s chief economist, said the “softer” outlook comes as the uncertainty surrounding Canada’s rocky trade relationship with the United States is being compounded by a jolt in energy prices sparked by the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran.The conflict quickly spread across the wider region and has threatened global oil shipments.Both consumers and businesses, she said in an interview, are “facing a lot of headwinds.” Story continues below advertisement “We’ve tried to inject that into our forecast, which means that in the first half of this year, we think we’re likely to see slower growth than we previously anticipated,” she said.“But we do remain confident that as the year progresses, we’ll see some of that disruptive factor in the Middle East moderate. And we will, we believe, see an agreement with the U.S. and Mexico (on trade) that is quite similar to what we’re having right now. And that will alleviate some of that uncertainty for Canadian businesses.”U.S. crude oil prices rose above US$110 a barrel on Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump said in a primetime address the night before that U.S. attacks on Iran will continue, without offering a clear timetable for ending the conflict. 2:20 Business Matters: Oil prices soar following Trump’s national address on Iran war More than 40 countries held talks Thursday on ways to secure and reopen the vital Strait of Hormuz oil route that has been choked off by Iran, a task Trump made clear will not be led by America. Story continues below advertisement The average price of gasoline in Canada has risen to more than $1.80 a litre as of Thursday, according to GasBuddy, the highest level in nearly four years. Get breaking National news Get breaking Canada news delivered to your inbox as it happens so you won't miss a trending story. Desjardins said higher energy prices will affect supply chain costs and could even restrain business investment, which she noted is not matching government spending at the moment.“We think this business investment in our forecast starts to improve i...
War abroad, windfall for some at home: Canada's Iran divide
The war hashit fertilizer shipments,too — especially urea, a high-nitrogen fertilizer, and sulphur — just as farmers head into spring planting. Canada has alreadyexpanded financial aid through Farm Credit Canada for farmers, agricultural businesses and food companies hit by the spike in energy and fertilizer costs.
Canada's GDP Forecast Cut Amid Iran Conflict Concerns
Deloitte Canada slashes 2026 GDP forecast amid increased volatility from the Middle East conflict and strained U.S. trade relations, posing new challenges for economic stability.
Deloitte downgrades Canadian economic forecast due to CUSMA and Iranian ...
Deloitte Canada has downgraded its growth expectations for Canada in 2026 due to CUSMA and Iranian war uncertainties. Find out more.
