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Projected RBA Cash Rate
Market-implied cash rate trajectory for 2026
Primary Sources
Hawkish RBA Shapes as Global Outlier With Third Hike Priced In
Australia's central bank is set to entrench its status as a hawkish outlier with a third straight interest-rate hike, diverging from peers that are mainly sitting tight to observe fallout from ...
RBA rate cut odds & hike probabilities by meeting
Reserve Bank of Australia Cash Rate Target: Twelve-Month Market Pricing As of: 2026-02-11 Target Cash Rate: 3.85% ES Balance Rate: 3.75% O/N Repo Rate: 4.10% Last AONIA: 3.85% Step: Next decision in — — Next meeting pricing — — Current Rate 3.85% Last AONIA: 3.850% PATH OF CASH RATE TARGET: MARKET EXPECTATION Showing cached data Meeting Implied Rate(Post-Meeting) Probability of Hike(Cut) # of Hikes(Cuts) Δ vs Current (bps) Mar 16, 2026 3.88% (11.1%) (0.11) 2.8 May 05, 2026 4.06% 71.5% 0.83 20.6 Jun 16, 2026 4.08% (7.5%) 0.90 22.5 Aug 11, 2026 4.18% 42.0% 1.32 33.0 Sep 29, 2026 4.18% (0.0%) 1.32 33.0 Nov 02, 2026 4.22% 17.8% 1.50 37.4 Dec 07, 2026 4.23% (0.2%) 1.50 37.5 Estimates represent market expectations for the RBA's target for the overnight cash rate. More information below. Data updated multiple times daily. If live data is unavailable, the page shows the last cached copy. Dates and times in EST/EDT. How to read this RBA rate screen Interpreting the table and chart Table rows correspond to Reserve Bank of Australia decision dates scheduled over the next year or so. Implied post-meeting rate is the expected target for the cash rate after each meeting. Probability of hike/cut displays an approximate probability of a rate move at each meeting (step size defaults to 25bps moves but can be changed in the drop-down menu). # of hikes/cuts shows the cumulative number of hikes/cuts expected between now and each meeting (also dependent on the step size selected). Δ vs current (bps) shows the cumulative change in the cash rate target priced-in between now and each meeting in basis points (+12.5bps = +0.125%). The chart plots the implied post-meeting rate across all upcoming meetings. An upward-sloping line indicates that markets are pricing further tightening over time; a flat line suggests an extended pause; a downward-sloping line indicates expected cuts. Use the screen to see what is currently priced in and to compare today’s expectations with those from previous weeks or months. What this page measures The table and chart reflect market pricing, not a forecast. When the site refers to “probabilities,” it is describing the likelihood implied by tradable instruments that reference future policy settings. In other words, it is a snapshot of consensus pricing that may be wrong and will often move as new information arrives. The page focuses on scheduled meetings, but policy decisions can sometimes occur outside regular meetings under extra...
Australian Dollar Trades Lower: Countdown to RBA Monetary Policy ...
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News & Announcements - Reserve Bank of Australia
... global economic outlook and the RBA's monetary policy strategy. Audio ... Forecasts of Period-average Exchanges Rates: Insights from Real-time Daily Data.
