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Patrick Artus: 'AI's impact on growth will depend on redistribution ...
Opinion Opinion Opinion Artificial Intelligence Artificial Intelligence Artificial Intelligence Column Patrick Artus Economist The rise of artificial intelligence is significantly boosting productivity, but its overall effects remain uncertain. Unemployment is a long-term concern, warns the economist in his column. Published today at 2:14 am (Paris) 3 min read Lire en français Subscribers only The impact of artificial intelligence on employment and productivity has been the subject of extensive economic literature. A consensus has emerged: Between 35% and 50% of tasks will be affected by AI, it will mostly replace fairly skilled, but not highly skilled, employees (mostly younger ones) and it will create new skills and training needs. But many uncertainties remain. It's clear that jobs will decline in sectors where AI can directly replace human labor, but it is much more difficult to measure the impact in sectors where AI complements human work – enriching tasks rather than replacing them – or where human contact and professional relationships play a central role. Research suggests that job losses will occur in finance, retail, transportation and logistics, manufacturing and information services. Conversely, job growth should center on healthcare, social services, business services and education. Thus, substantial productivity gains are theoretically expected in sectors where AI substitutes for labor or enhances tasks, but are more limited in sectors where human interaction is essential. Another uncertainty is AI's impact on growth. It certainly depends on its effects on employment, but also on other key factors, foremost among them the extent of redistributive policies and income sharing. Effects on employment and productivity In the United States, where redistributive mechanisms are limited, job losses are only partially offset. Additionally, productivity gains primarily increase corporate profits rather than wages; the main potential driver of growth, therefore, lies in rising consumption among the wealthiest individuals. Recent trends indeed show that only the top 10% of households have seen a significant increase in their consumption. In Europe, by contrast, lower income inequality and more developed redistributive policies help mitigate the impact of artificial intelligence on growth. An empirical review of developments in the US economy supports this largely theoretical analysis of AI's effects on employment and productivity. The US, which holds abou...
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