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Betting Model Comparison
Comparison of traditional parimutuel betting and event-based prediction markets.
Primary Sources
Kentucky Derby: How algorithms are changing horse betting ... and ...
LOUISVILLE, Ky. — The sixth race at Del Mar on a random Saturday last July should not have been memorable in any way. Running for an $81,000 purse, a 4-year-old Thoroughbred named Nanci Griffith won the one-mile race and paid $14.80 to win on a $2 bet.But for many of those who backed the winner, the payout was a massive disappointment. As the gate opened, the tote board showed Nanci Griffith’s odds at 18-1. When she crossed the wire, however, the odds had changed to 6-1, meaning those who held winning tickets collected less than half of what they might have expected at post time.AdvertisementUnlike sports wagering, where a bettor is playing against a bookmaker and locks in their odds at the time of the bet, American horse racing — which is in the spotlight this week for Saturday’s running of the 152nd Kentucky Derby — has long been based on a parimutuel system where the bettors are wagering against each other.Once all the money goes into a pool, the racetrack takes a fixed percentage off the top and what’s left is divided up among the winning bets. As a result, the odds shown to the public on TV or computer screens are constantly shifting based on what percentage of total money is being bet on each horse.Gambling decisions at the racetrack, however, are often based on perceived value. Someone may be willing to bet on a horse at 7-1 but might think differently if the odds were 2-1. While odds changes are part of the game, someone who makes a bet 10 or 15 minutes before a race would typically not expect the final odds to be dramatically different from what they were at the time of the wager.That wasn’t the case at Del Mar last July. Such a big drop in the blink of an eye — the result of a massive bet on Nanci Griffith right before the gate opened — was one of the more notable examples of a topic that has roiled horse racing and its most loyal gamblers in recent years.AdvertisementKnown in horse racing circles as CAWs — or Computer-Assisted Wagering syndicates — these well-funded groups of professional gamblers have built algorithms to model horse races, track public betting patterns and make large wagers when they identify an inefficiency. Thanks both to technology and the special privileges some racetracks have given them, the CAWs are able to upload tranches of bets directly into the wagering pool at lightning speeds — far faster than any regular player could do it on a phone app or at a racetrack window.The ability to do it at the very last moment — somet...
A Simple Guide To Betting The Kentucky Derby - Forbes
23 hours ago ... The Kentucky Derby is the most wagered upon race in the United States. Over $234 million was bet in 2025. The across the board wager is a simple way to cash ...
Why prediction markets might be skipping the Kentucky Derby - ESPN
The prediction markets' caution around horse racing might seem out of place, especially given the brash ways in which they have challenged sports gambling ...
Can You Trade on the Kentucky Derby at Prediction Markets?
22 hours ago ... There are currently no trading options allowed on the Kentucky Derby, or any major horse races in the United States, at prediction markets like Kalshi and ...
