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Strait of Hormuz Traffic Estimates
Comparison between assumed blockade traffic and estimated real-time vessel movement.
Primary Sources
Strait of Hormuz: Wall Street report claims the waterway is operating ...
April 7, 2026 — 5:46pmWall Street’s gonzo research firm Citrini claimed to have made an important discovery when it sent an analyst to see first-hand what is happening in the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow body of water that is deciding the future of the global economy.Last week, the Citrini employee dubbed Analyst #3 – armed with cigars, thousands of dollars in cash and cans of nicotine pouches – boarded a speedboat in the strait and reported back that the waterway was not closed to the extent that some experts have thought.A cargo ship sits anchored at port in Oman amid Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Getty ImagesOne thing is clear, though: Iran is effectively operating a tollway that allows favoured ships to pass through the strait.“You don’t go through if you don’t get approved,” Citrini’s report said. “This is the difference between a blockade and a toll road, and the market has been pricing the former while the reality on the water is setting up to look a lot more like the latter.”The eyewitness detail on the state of the strait is in stark contrast to the notoriety that Citrini achieved in February when it triggered a global sharemarket meltdown with a dystopian report imagining what AI could do to the world economy by 2028.Visiting the strait last week in an old motorboat, the analyst saw for himself what he claimed satellite and ship tracking data has failed to detect – a growing volume of ships travelling through the strait “dark” – a reference to the ships having their trackers turned off.“I saw a Greek Dynacom ship ripping straight through the centre of the strait – not hugging the margins like every other captain, not creeping along the coast, but charging through the middle as if this were peacetime,” he reported.“If you want a single image that confirms the thesis that the strait is reopening under Iranian management, it’s a Greek tanker running full speed through the centre of Hormuz while drones fly overhead and everyone else hides along the edges.”International news outlets including the Financial Times and Reuters have confirmed that Dynacom Tankers, a shipping firm owned by 79-year-old Greek billionaire George Prokopiou, has sent numerous vessels through the strait since the conflict began.Citrini also observed what appeared to be Chinese vessels, and ships flagged from India, Malaysia, Japan, Greece, France, Oman and Turkey.In all, 14 ships passing through on April 2, compared to no more than four ships a day for the previous tw...
Wall Street firm Citrini Research analyzes Strait of Hormuz - CNBC
A satellite view of the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic waterway between Iran and Oman that links the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea.Gallo Images | Getty ImagesAs the world's oil traders parsed satellite images and official statements for clues on the fate of the Strait of Hormuz, one research firm seems to have taken a different approach: It says it sent an analyst directly into the conflict zone.Citrini Research, which issued a market-shaking bearish call on artificial intelligence earlier this year, said it dispatched an analyst to Oman's Musandam Peninsula, where the person traveled by boat to observe shipping activity firsthand amid escalating tensions between Iran and the U.S. What the analyst claims to have found challenges the dominant narrative gripping global markets that the critical oil artery is effectively shut.Instead, the analyst, whom the firm did not name due to the sensitivity of the activity, found that vessels are still moving through the strait, with traffic picking up in recent days to roughly 15 ships per day, according to the firm's report posted on Substack. While far below normal levels, the flow suggests the disruption is partial and evolving rather than absolute."Tankers passing through four or five a day, completely dark on AIS. The volume, they said, is higher than what the data suggests, and it's been accelerating in the past couple days through the Qeshm channel," Citrini's post said. AIS is a ship-tracking system that broadcasts a vessel's location, speed, identity and route. Citrini asserts that the actual shipping volume is higher than reported data as many ships turn off their transponders and are not visible on official tracking systems.Citrini didn't immediately respond to CNBC's request for comment. Based on the Substack post, the analyst's interviews with fishermen, smugglers and regional officials point to a system in which Iran is selectively allowing ships to pass. Tankers are required to secure approval before transiting waters near Iranian territory, creating what the firm described as a "functional checkpoint" rather than a blockade, Citrini said in its post."This should drive home that what we've described as our view of the conflict is nuanced — it doesn't fit neatly into 'strait open crude down' or 'strait closed crude parabolic,'" the firm said. To be sure, the findings are based on a single field trip and anecdotal accounts that are difficult to independently verify, particularly given limited transparency...
Citrini Research said it sent an analyst to the Strait of Hormuz. Here ...
The Strait of Hormuz has become a critical front in the Iran war and the global energy crisis. Citrini Research said it sent an analyst to the shipping channel to find out the situation on the ground.
Why Citrini Research Sent an Analyst to the Strait of Hormuz
With markets wobbling and bad information everywhere, Citrini Research sent an analyst to the war zone to figure out what's really happening.
