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nber.org
US Treasury Bonds and Trade Policy Uncertainty | NBER

In April 2025, the United States implemented its highest tariffs in a century, triggering reciprocal tariff announcements from China, Canada, and the European Union. In the days following the tariff announcements, the S&P 500 fell more than 11 percent. The yield on 30-year Treasury bonds rose and peaked at 5.2 percent in late May, its highest level since before the 2007–08 global financial crisis. In Tariff War Shock and the Convenience Yield of US Treasuries—A Hedging Perspective (NBER Working Paper 34640), Viral V. Acharya and Toomas Laarits investigate the breakdown in long-term Treasury bonds' traditional role as a hedge against stock market declines. The researchers decompose Treasury yields into three components: a risk-free rate, a credit spread, and a convenience yield. They measure convenience yield using the Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS)-Treasury premium, which compares nominal Treasury yields with synthetic nominal Treasuries constructed from TIPS and inflation swaps. The convenience yield—the premium investors pay for Treasury securities' liquidity, safety, and collateral value—typically ranges between 10 and 40 basis points for long-term bonds. Using intraday data at five-minute intervals from two actively traded exchange-traded funds—SPY, an S&P 500 fund, and IEF, a fund of 7–10 year maturity nominal Treasuries—they calculate daily stock-bond covariances to capture rapid shifts in market dynamics.The 10-year TIPS-Treasury premium declined by nearly 10 basis points from late March 2025 to its trough on April 10, a significant drop relative to the average historical spread of 24 basis points. The two-year premium exceeded the 10-year premium by 7 basis points in April 2025, reversing the typical relationship where these measures were historically an average of only 2 basis points apart.On April 9, April 11, and April 23, three days coinciding with major tariff announcements, the returns on long-term Treasuries exhibited positive covariance with stocks, meaning they declined alongside equities rather than serving as a hedge. The April 23 positive covariance ranked in the top 0.25 percent of all trading days since 2005. Decomposing bond returns by yield component shows that the positive covariance arose specifically from day-to-day changes in convenience yield at the 10-year maturity, while the two- and five-year convenience yields maintained their traditional negative covariance with stocks.Using historical data spanning two dec...

nber.org
reuters.com
Rates & Bonds Market Headlines | Breaking Stock Market News | Reuters

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reuters.com
ustreasuryetf.com
Current US Treasury Rates - US Benchmark Series

Current US Treasury Rates Treasury Bond Information * The yields listed for the Treasuries noted are not representative of the yield of the ETF. See the link for each ETF for current performance, yields, and a prospectus. The expense ratio of each fund is 0.15%. Data Source: https://finnhub.io/ Interest Rate Scenario Analysis Data Source: https://finnhub.io/ […]

ustreasuryetf.com
fred.stlouisfed.org
Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 30-Year Constant ... - FRED

Graph and download economic data for Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 30-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS30) from 1977-02-15 to 2026-04-02 about 30-year, maturity, Treasury, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

fred.stlouisfed.org