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Projected Impact on Inflation (March)
Contribution of different sectors to the anticipated March CPI increase.
Primary Sources
Analysis of US CPI Report for March - Bloomberg.com
Welcome to TOPLive's coverage of the US consumer price index report for March, with the data providing a first look into the impact of the ongoing Iran war on inflation. Join us at 8:15 a.m. New ...
March CPI: What to expect from the first US inflation report ... - CNN
The Consumer Price Index for March, set to be released at 8:30 a.m. Friday, is expected to show that US inflation bolted higher as a direct result of the Middle East war’s energy shock. Economists are estimating that prices leapt 0.9% from February, more than triple the pace seen in January. Such an increase would drive the annual rate of inflation to 3.4% from 2.4%. That would not only put inflation back at a level not seen in nearly two years but it would nearly wipe out Americans’ pay gains of 3.5%. “We’ll definitely see elevated prices eating away at people’s paychecks,” Elise Gould, a senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute, told CNN. The ceasefire reached earlier this week stemmed some fears that the conflict could drastically deepen or even come to a resolution sooner than later. However, uncertainty continues to linger as do the potential inflationary effects. Even before the war, inflation was running higher than normal, kept elevated by tariff-related price hikes on goods as well as still-strong consumer demand, to a lesser extent, on services. “Inflation pressures were already building before the war and are now intensifying,” Dean Baker, senior economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research, wrote Wednesday. Inflation is expected to continue to accelerate in the coming months as the war’s aftershocks ripple beyond gas prices and permeate through a host of commonly purchased goods as well as some services. Sharply rising gas and energy prices are expected to be the biggest contributor to March’s expected jump in inflation, Samuel Tombs, chief US economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, told CNN. Pantheon is expecting a 23% rise in gas prices, which would be the highest monthly increase on record for the index. “There’s been bigger energy price shocks in total, but they’ve rippled through over several months,” he said. “This just came through in one month.” If Pantheon’s math bears out, the increase in gas prices would account for more than two-thirds of the firm’s projected 1% monthly increase in the overall CPI. It’s an abrupt increase on its own but one that comes with some legs. “The energy price shock will take many months to play out to other parts of the economy,” Tombs said. “Goods prices won’t change immediately, but after three to six months, you tend to see energy price changes filter through to consumers.” Still, some oil-related price hikes could show up immediately. The CPI data on airfares, for exampl...
March CPI Forecast to Reflect Surge in Energy Prices from Iran War
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the March CPI report on April 10, while the US Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the February PCE report (delayed due to the government ...
CPI report may show inflation hitting 2024 levels amid soaring gas prices
The CPI report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday. "The impact of the war on energy prices will push headline CPI inflation well above 3% in March and above 4% by April," Oxford Economics ...
