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US Quarterly GDP Growth Rate
Comparison of GDP growth rate between Q4 2025 and Q1 2026.
Primary Sources
The US economy bounced back in the first quarter of 2026
The US economy bounced back in the first quarter of 2026 By Madison Hoff You're currently following this author! Want to unfollow? Unsubscribe via the link in your email. Gas prices, on average, are elevated. Frederic J. BROWN / AFP via Getty Images 2026-04-30T12:33:28.243Z Real GDP rose at an annualized rate of 2% in the first quarter of 2026, just short of the expected 2.2%. That's higher than the 0.5% rise in the fourth quarter of 2025. Other reports showed that the Iran war affected inflation in March, and that unemployment remained around 4%. The US started 2026 with a comeback. US real gross domestic product rose at an annualized rate of 2% in the first quarter, short of the 2.2% expected but above the 0.5% rise in the fourth quarter of 2025.Other data releases show how the economy was shaping up at the start of the year. The job market continued to fluctuate between job growth and job loss. The US added 178,000 jobs in March, largely driven by healthcare and leisure and hospitality. That comes after a 133,000 loss in February due to weather and a healthcare strike. Unemployment is still hovering around 4%.The effects of the Iran war showed up in the recent consumer price index report, with CPI rising 3.3% over the year, the largest increase since May 2024, due to a surge in energy prices. The effects haven't really shown up in core prices yet, which excludes volatile food and energy prices.Atsi Sheth, the chief credit officer at Moody's Ratings, described the economy ahead of the GDP report as "fragile resilience" because the US isn't in a recession, and both business and consumers are still holding up. The economy has also been fairly resistant to trade shocks, she added. However, she said the pillars holding up the economy are increasingly thinning as more shocks emerge. "On the employment side, for instance, there's just now a narrower range of sectors that are actually adding jobs, healthcare being a big one among them, not that many other sectors are adding jobs," she said.Jason Draho, the head of asset allocation for the Americas for UBS Global Wealth Management, told Business Insider before the new GDP release that the figure was expected to be noisy, as it has been because of the effect of trade policies. "What I would focus on is the private sector final demand in the US economy, because that kind of ignores inventory effects and ignores net exports, which can be volatile," he said."Once you strip out some of the volatility and no...
The U.S. economy got off to a slow start in 2026, but it appears to ...
The U.S. economy got off to a slow start in 2026, but it appears to have finished strong at the end of the first quarter, despite the war with Iran.In a good sign for the economy, a trio of reports on business investment, home building and inventories of unsold goods all showed surprising strength in March.Leading the way, a measure of business investment shot up by 3.3% in March after a 1.6% increase in February. These were the strongest back-to-back gains since 2017 if the recovery after the pandemic is excluded.Businesses have been pouring money into artificial intelligence and other technologies — and there doesn’t appear to be any letup. A slew of new tax breaks enacted by the Trump White House have also given companies an incentive to invest more.In the 12 months that ended in March, so-called core durable-goods orders rose a frothy 9.5%, the fastest clip in eight years outside of the pandemic era.A year ago, these orders were rising at a soft 2.4% rate.“The magnitude of the AI-related tech boom continues to build momentum,” said Stephen Stanley, chief U.S. economist of Santander Capital Markets.One caveat: Some of the increase in investment may have been tied to companies rushing orders in case the Iran war led to bottlenecks for critical supplies due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.Whatever the case, businesses in March also sharply increased production of goods for future sale.Inventories of wholesale goods surged 1.4% in the month, while retail inventories climbed 0.7%. Both were the biggest advances in several years.“Inventory accumulation was also stronger than expected,” said economist Katherine Judge of CIBC Economics.A surge in home building in March was the final piece of good news. Housing starts climbed to a 15-month high.The surge in construction, however, probably won’t last. Home sales have been in a slump for a while due to high prices and high mortgage rates.The simmering Iran war, meanwhile, has driven up oil and gas prices, and that could weigh on the economy in the months ahead.Read more at the link in our bio.
US economy showed solid growth in the first quarter as Iran war began - CNN
The first-quarter figure shows the economy headed into the Iran war on strong footing, boosted by bigger tax returns that helped offset the initial uptick in prices at the pump.
US GDP growth in Q1 2026? Odds & Predictions - Kalshi
11 hours ago ... US GDP growth in Q1 2026? ; 78.9%. △ 3.9 · 78.7¢ ; 53.5%. △ 5.5 · 45¢ ; 32.5%. △ 11.5 · 32.4¢.
