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GDP Growth Projection Downgrade
Comparison between initial and revised GDP growth forecasts for the UK.
Primary Sources
UK commitment to war in Iran may see 250k people jobless in 2027
A global accounting giant and an economic forecasting firm say the war in Iran could see 250,000 people lose their jobs in 2027. The math is simple: the ruling class wages war and makes money, and ...
UK to 'flirt' with recession and 250,000 to lose jobs amid Iran war ...
Britain’s economy is poised to “flirt” with recession, with unemployment set to soar amid the fallout from the ongoing conflict in Iran, economic forecasters have warned.A new report has predicted that the UK’s economy will flatline across the second and third quarters of this year, hovering on the brink of a technical recession – defined as two consecutive quarters of falling GDP.The latest Independent Treasury Economic Model (Item) Club report predicted a modest 0.7 per cent rise in gross domestic product (GDP) over the entire year, a significant downgrade from the 1.4 per cent expansion initially forecast for 2025. It comes just days after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that Donald Trump’s war on Iran risks triggering a global recession in a damning assessment of the conflict’s impact on the world economy.While the economy will “flirt with recession”, it will also see higher oil and energy prices weigh on activity, and the jobs market suffer its “biggest hit since the pandemic”, the Item Club warned.It anticipates the UK’s jobless rate will peak at 5.8 per cent by mid-2027, resulting in nearly 250,000 more people out of work – meaning there would be more than 2 million jobseekers.The Item Club said higher oil and energy prices will stifle activity, and the jobs market will endure its ‘biggest hit since the pandemic’ (Reuters)Matt Swannell, chief economic adviser to the UK-based economic forecasting group, said: “Spiralling energy costs and disruption to supply chains will push the UK to the brink of a technical recession in the middle of this year. “Consumers’ spending power will be squeezed, while more expensive financing arrangements and a less certain global economic backdrop will pour cold water on companies’ investment plans.”US president Donald Trump has issued further threats to Iran if a deal is not reached around the Strait of Hormuz, after it was reported that Iranian forces were refusing passage through the key trading route over the weekend.The IMF has said the international outlook had “abruptly darkened” as a result of the war, which threatens to throw the global economy “off course” and could cause an energy crisis on an unprecedented scale.Last week, it highlighted the UK as facing the largest growth downgrade among G7 nations, with a forecast of 0.8 per cent for 2026, sharply down from 1.3 per cent predicted in January. However, recent data indicated stronger than expected economic momentum before the full impact of the Ir...
UK Economy to 'Flirt' with Recession as Iran War Fallout Threatens ...
Economic forecasters warn the UK is poised to 'flirt' with recession, with unemployment set to soar by 250,000 due to the Iran conflict's impact on oil prices and supply chains.
Economy risks recession as Iran war threatens 250000 job losses
9 hours ago ... Britain faces the loss of almost 250,000 jobs as the Iran war delivers the sharpest blow to the jobs market since the pandemic. Unemployment will rise above ...
