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Researcher Sentiment on AI Catastrophe
Percentage of researchers who agree that AI decisions could lead to a catastrophe at least as bad as nuclear war.
Primary Sources
Commentary: An AI threat looms, and we are not prepared | Tribune | dailygazette.com
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AI safety - Wikipedia
AI safety is an interdisciplinary field focused on preventing accidents, misuse, or other harmful consequences arising from artificial intelligence (AI) systems. It encompasses AI alignment (which aims to ensure AI systems behave as intended), monitoring AI systems for risks, and enhancing their robustness. The field is particularly concerned with existential risks posed by advanced AI models.[1][2] Beyond technical research, AI safety involves developing norms and policies that promote safety, including advocacy for regulations at different levels of government.[3][4][5] The field gained significant popularity in 2023, with rapid progress in generative AI and public concerns voiced by researchers and CEOs about potential dangers. During the 2023 AI Safety Summit, the United States and the United Kingdom both established their own AI Safety Institute. However, researchers have expressed concern that AI safety measures are not keeping pace with the rapid development of AI capabilities.[6] Scholars discuss current risks from critical systems failures,[7] bias,[8] and AI-enabled surveillance,[9] as well as emerging risks like technological unemployment, digital manipulation,[10] weaponization,[11] AI-enabled cyberattacks[12] and bioterrorism.[13] They also discuss speculative risks from losing control of future artificial general intelligence (AGI) agents,[14] or from AI enabling perpetually stable dictatorships.[15] Some have criticized concerns about AGI, such as Andrew Ng who compared them in 2015 to "worrying about overpopulation on Mars when we have not even set foot on the planet yet".[16] Stuart J. Russell on the other side urges caution, arguing that "it is better to anticipate human ingenuity than to underestimate it".[17] AI researchers have widely differing opinions about the severity and primary sources of risk posed by AI technology[18][19][20] – though surveys suggest that experts take high consequence risks seriously. In two surveys of AI researchers, the median respondent was optimistic about AI overall, but placed a 5% probability on an "extremely bad (e.g. human extinction)" outcome of advanced AI.[18] In a 2022 survey of the natural language processing community, 37% agreed or weakly agreed that it is plausible that AI decisions could lead to a catastrophe that is "at least as bad as an all-out nuclear war".[21] Risks from AI began to be seriously discussed at the start of the computer age: Moreover, if we move in the direction of makin...
Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence
About the Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence (AAAI) The Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence (AAAI) is the premier scientific society dedicated to advancing the scientific understanding of the mechanisms underlying thought and intelligent behavior and their embodiment in machines.
Artificial Intelligence | RAND
... world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND Headquarters. P.O. Box ...
