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Public Perception of Tax Law Impact
Survey results on how taxpayers perceive the latest tax law changes.
Primary Sources
Tax refunds are up, but many Americans aren't feeling it
Americans rushing to meet Wednesday’s tax filing deadline are getting bigger refunds on average thanks to President Donald Trump’s tax law, though the savings are falling short of his promises and many say they haven’t noticed a difference.Trump’s centerpiece legislative achievement so far has helped drive the average refund up by nearly $350, though that’s far less than the president’s promised $1,000 boost. Almost 70% of taxpayers received a refund through the start of this month, compared to 67% at the same time last year, according to IRS data.Yet the savings aren’t registering with large numbers of Americans as they confront a surge in gasoline prices driven the U.S.-Israel war in Iran, economic uncertainty and the threat of job losses driven by advances in artificial intelligence.That is politically perilous for Republicans, who have leaned heavily on the boost in tax refunds for their economic pitch to voters as they try to retain control of Congress in this year’s midterm elections. Trump is expected to promote the tax law in a trip to Nevada this week.The law itself, which paired tax breaks with steep cuts to the social safety net programs, has polled poorly with voters. Republicans have counted on tax refunds to turn that perception around. Taxpayers are nearly as likely to say last year’s tax changes harmed them as they were to report a benefit, according to a late March poll of 1,200 people who had already filed their tax returns by the Bipartisan Policy Center, a centrist organization. Only 27% said the 2025 tax cuts helped them, while 24% said changes hurt them. Another 38% said they didn’t notice a change.The perception is hard to reconcile with the law’s provisions. The legislation raised the standard deduction, typically claimed by roughly 90% of taxpayers, by $1,150. Even for people taxed at the lowest rate, that translates into a $115 savings. More than 105 million taxpayers claimed the standard deduction as of Tuesday, according to the Treasury Department.Even taxpayers eligible for the law’s marquee breaks — new deductions for tips and overtime wages — were nearly as likely to report the new tax law hurt them as they were to say they helped. Among poll respondents who said they had tip or overtime income last year, 35% reported being harmed by the changes and 36% reported benefiting.“It’s really like a 50-50 proposition of, like, this helped me versus this hurt me,” Andrew Lautz, director of tax policy for the Bipartisan Policy Center,...
Tax Refunds Are Up, But Many Americans Aren't Feeling It
11 hours ago ... Americans rushing to meet Wednesday's tax filing deadline are getting bigger refunds on average thanks to President Donald Trump's tax law, though the ...
The average federal income tax refund is +11% this year. A big ...
4 hours ago ... The average federal income tax refund is +11% this year. A big reason why is President Donald Trump's Big Beautiful Bill, which quadrupled the deduction...
Today is Tax Day. Trump and Republicans promised bigger refunds ...
3 hours ago ... Today is Tax Day. Trump and Republicans promised bigger refunds. Instead, families got shortchanged. Now, they're paying over $2500 more from tariffs,...
