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Projected Economic Impact by 2043
Comparison of GDP loss and poverty projections based on a protracted conflict scenario.
Primary Sources
Sudan's Conflict Escalates as Tribal Divisions and Militia Power ...
After a series of defeats, Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militia commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, is pushing to consolidate control over territories in Sudan’s south and west. Leveraging his ties within Taqaddum, a political coalition working to establish a parallel government, he is laying the groundwork for his own administration.Despite the Sudanese army’s recent gains, three politicians from the country’s east—nominally under military control—made a surprise move by announcing their readiness to sign the parallel government’s charter. The initiative took shape in Nairobi on February 21, 2025.The trio includes Ibrahim al-Mirghani, a key figure in the Democratic Unionist Party; Osama Saeed, spokesperson for the Sudanese Revolutionary Front; and Mubarak Mubrouk Salim, a tribal leader of the Rashaida and former transport minister under ousted president Omar al-Bashir.According to the UN, both the Ababda and Rashaida tribes have been involved in gold, fuel, and commodity smuggling—an illicit trade that has helped bankroll the RSF militia’s war effort against the army.Since April 2023, Sudan’s military and the RSF militia have been locked in a devastating conflict that has killed over 20,000 people and displaced 14 million, according to the UN and local authorities. However, research from U.S. universities puts the death toll closer to 130,000.As the fighting engulfs 13 of Sudan’s 18 states, international calls to end the war are growing louder, with fears mounting of an impending humanitarian catastrophe. Millions now face starvation and death as the conflict pushes the country further into crisis.Eastern Sudan, home to major tribes such as the Ababda, Rashaida, Shukria, Hadendoa, Bishari, Amarar, Halanga, Beni Amer, and Habab, is fast becoming a new flashpoint in the country’s deepening crisis. Alongside these, independent chieftaincies and administrative entities like the Nubian Council and the Hausa leadership hold sway in the region.On November 11, 2024, The Independent reported that eastern Sudan had become an open playing field for the country’s warring factions. The region, The Independent noted, is increasingly being exploited by political actors seeking to manipulate local dynamics whenever the conflict elsewhere in Sudan intensifies.According to the report, eastern Sudan is ill-equipped to handle the fallout from the emergence of new armed groups. The formation of military factions led by politicians, tribal leaders, and religious f...
What would prolonged war mean for Sudan? - Al Jazeera
Rhetoric surrounding Sudan’s ongoing war has escalated with Rapid Support Forces (RSF) commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as “Hemedti,” recently announcing that his soldiers were prepared to keep fighting “until 2040 if necessary.”His remarks came days after his rival and Sudan’s army chief and Transitional Sovereign Council head, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, vowed to keep fighting until Sudan was “cleansed” of the RSF and estimated the war could last until 2033.Recommended Stories list of 1 itemlist 1 of 1Satellite imagery reveals how Sudan’s war scorched its ‘breadbasket’end of listBoth sides increasingly appear to view the war as a long-term struggle for survival and control of Sudan, the consequences of which would be devastating.UNDP Sudan Representative Luca Renda cautioned that “the longer the war continues, the greater the misery,” describing the conflict as “the economics of suffering”.According to a joint report last month by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and Institute for Security Studies, more than 150,000 people have been killed since fighting began in 2023. Nearly 15 million people have been displaced, up to 24 million face food shortages and at least 19 million lack access to safe drinking water and sanitation.The report warns that Sudan’s state institutions are on the verge of total collapse, with governance paralysed, healthcare and education systems shattered, markets destroyed, and production in agriculture, manufacturing and services severely weakened.Economic impactThe report projects that under a “Protracted Conflict” scenario with the war lasting until 2030, Sudan’s GDP in 2043 would be US$34.5 billion lower than it would be with no war, GDP per capita would fall by roughly $1,700, while more than 60% of the population would be living in extreme poverty.“A conflict lasting to 2030 would push an additional 34 million people into extreme poverty – that is the entire population of Ghana,” Renda said.He warned that a $1,700 fall in per capita income in Sudan “is the difference between being a family that can eat and one that can’t, between being a child who goes to school and one who goes to work.”Despite Sudan’s vast natural resources – including oil, gold and some of Africa’s most fertile agricultural land – the war has crippled the infrastructure needed to sustain the economy. “Natural resources don’t feed people on their own,” Renda said, “and every year of war moves those resources further out of reach”.Healthcare c...
Conflicts in Sudan - African Centre for Justice and Peace Studies
The region of Darfur, incorporated into Sudan in 1916, long suffered marginalization and under-development in comparison to Central Sudan. Poverty and lack of development in the face of environmental degradation led to recurrent conflicts among farming and nomadic communities in the 1990s.
Sudan - Darfur Conflict, Genocide, War Crimes | Britannica
Sudan - Darfur Conflict, Genocide, War Crimes: A separate conflict that remained unresolved centered on the Darfur region in western Sudan. The conflict began in 2003 when rebels launched an insurrection to protest what they contended was the Sudanese government's disregard for the western region and its non-Arab population. In response, the government equipped and supported Arab militias ...
