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Global Food Market Impact Indicators
Projected and recent percentage changes in food and cereal price indices.
Primary Sources
As Iran crisis drags on, fears of global food crisis grow
In the nearly two months since the start of the Iran war, prices of fuel and fertiliser have surged worldwide.The question now preoccupying economists and policymakers is when – and how hard – the fallout will hit the cost of food.Recommended Stories list of 4 itemslist 1 of 4From Pakistan to Egypt, Iran war drives up prices in Global Southlist 2 of 4‘It all depends on the crop’: Gulf crisis hits South Asia farmerslist 3 of 4World faces food ‘catastrophe’ if Strait of Hormuz disruption persists: FAOlist 4 of 4Why Pakistani farmers are suing two German companies for deadly 2022 floodsend of listAnalysts are in broad agreement that the true impact of the conflict has yet to be felt, due to the lag between rising agricultural input costs and higher prices on shelves.They also agree that the severity of the fallout largely hinges on how long disruption to shipping continues in the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries about one-third of global seaborne fertiliser and one-quarter of seaborne oil.“Food prices will definitely rise in the coming months, making it more difficult for many people around the world to afford adequate and healthy diets,” Matin Qaim, executive director of the Center for Development Research at the University of Bonn in Germany, told Al Jazeera.“Poor people in Africa and Asia will be hurt the most because they have to spend a high share of their income on food anyway,” Qaim said.“Hunger and undernutrition will very likely rise.”The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) last week warned that a prolonged crisis in the strait, which Iran has closed in retaliation for the United States and Israel’s war, could lead to a global food “catastrophe”.India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Somalia, Sudan, Tanzania, Kenya, and Egypt are among the countries most at risk, according to the FAO.In an analysis last month, the World Food Programme said nearly 45 million more people could face acute food shortages if the conflict continues into the middle of the year and oil prices remain above $100 a barrel.A farmer harvests wheat crops in the suburbs of Peshawar, Pakistan, on May 6, 2024 [Muhammad Sajjad/AP]Global cereal productionSo far, the war has only affected food prices modestly – to an extent that has surprised some observers.Global food prices rose 2.4 percent last month compared with February, according to the FAO’s food price index.Cereal prices saw an even smaller gain, edging up 1.5 percent, according to the UN agency’s index.By way of comparison,...
Iran war sparks global food crisis fears: Which countries face shortages
05.03.2026 18:32 newsroom The military confrontation between the US and Israel against Iran affects more than just international energy prices. The food crisis emerging in the Middle East poses an equally serious threat to millions of people, as disruption in the Strait of Hormuz endangers the supply of essential goods throughout the Gulf region. The Strait of Hormuz and the threat to food supply The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz is not exclusively about energy security. According to Financial Times economic analyst Susannah Savage, specific areas of the Middle East are already facing shortages of critical food imports. Commercial vessels are choosing alternative routes to avoid the dangerous passage, dramatically increasing the risk of shortages in all Gulf countries. Most grain, packaged foods, and fresh produce consumed in the region passes through this critical maritime passage. Commercial ships avoiding it raises concerns about serious shortages and sharp price increases, especially in states that depend almost exclusively on imports to meet their dietary needs. Which countries are most affected by the crisis The United Arab Emirates exemplifies dependence on imports. The country imports approximately 90% of its food through Dubai’s Jebel Ali port, a strategic hub serving the dietary needs of 50 million people across four Gulf countries and remote regions. Saudi Arabia, despite having greater agricultural production, continues to rely significantly on imports to meet its population’s needs. Disruption of supply chains through the Strait of Hormuz directly affects product availability and domestic market prices. Inflation and food shortages in Iran Iran, despite producing a larger percentage of its food compared to neighboring countries, already faces a dramatic situation. Food inflation has exceeded 100%, leaving many households unable to procure basic food items even before the conflict escalation. Analysts warn that military operations against Iran could cause serious damage to food production and distribution infrastructure. Continued disruption will further reduce imports, worsening the already critical situation. For this reason, Iran has temporarily banned all food and agricultural product exports to ensure the supply of essential goods to its domestic population. Scenarios for prolonged disruption in the Strait Regional countries maintain strategic food reserves at different levels and can redirect part of their trade to alternative ports. ...
"Global agri-food catastrophe": FAO sounds alarm on Strait of Hormuz crisis
Key takeaways The UN FAO's chief economist warns that a protracted Strait of Hormuz crisis could lead to a global agri-food catastrophe, triggering rising food prices and lower crop yields. The unresolved US-Iran conflict, including naval blockades and sanctions, continues to affect key agricultural inputs like fertilizer, oil, and grains, putting global food security at risk. The FAO calls ...
How the Iran War Is Already Fueling a Global Food Crisis
The war in Iran's impact on global food prices has thus far been on the periphery of commentary about the conflict — but as this conversation shows, there is great urgency in understanding the cascading humanitarian consequences that are already unfolding.
