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Quarterly Unemployment Rate Comparison
Comparison of Q4 and Q1 unemployment rates in New Zealand.
Primary Sources
New Zealand Consumer Confidence Hits Three-Year Low on Iran War
New Zealand consumer confidence has slumped to a three-year low as the Iran war drives up fuel prices, hitting household incomes and stoking fears of an economic slowdown.
BNZ lifts unemployment rate forecast as hiring intentions soften
The labour market will be in focus this week, with the release of employment data for the March quarter on Wednesday expected to show the economy entered the oil shock with a considerable degree of disinflationary slack (or surplus capacity) already in place. While that slack is likely to keep the unemployment rate relatively unchanged at 5.3 percent, BNZ is now forecasting it to peak closer to 6 percent later in the year. BNZ economist Matt Brunt expects this week’s data to show a modest 0.2 percent quarterly lift in employment growth and for the labour force participation rate to also come in slightly higher, though the data will not fully take into account the impact of the conflict in the Middle East. read more “Employment lifted in Q4 last year for the first time in over a year and we expect this continued in the first quarter of this year, though our forecasts for improved labour supply would still see the unemployment rate tick up to 5.5 percent. “However … the latest Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion showing some softening in hiring intentions along with the recent downward revisions in filled jobs numbers have led us to lower our employment growth forecasts, and we now see the unemployment rate peaking at around 5.8 percent later this year.” ANZ Bank’s latest business outlook survey showed business confidence falling sharply from 32.5 in March to minus 10.6 in April – though it was at least higher than the minus 22.5 average seen for the late-March responses. Notably, reported past wage increases ticked slightly higher, but expected (future) wage indicators eased, both in terms of the size of expected increases and the net percentage of firms expecting to raise their wages. ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner says that while this isn’t good news for workers, it is positive from an inflation-fighting point of view, as it lowers the risk of the inflation shock becoming persistent via wage dynamics. “Firms are understandably concerned about the outlook for their activity and profitability in the face of this significant cost shock. But although some of [the data] was ugly, many activity indicators – both forward and backward-looking – were actually higher this month than in the late-month responses received last month, suggesting some of the initial confidence shock has dissipated. “However, it remains a very challenging time to run a business, and the uncertainty of the outlook will itself likely see some hiring and investment decisions ...
Jobs Online - Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment
Jobs Online Jobs Online is a regular data series that measures changes in online job advertisements from 4 internet job boards - Seek, Trade Me Jobs, Education Gazette and Kiwi Health Jobs.
News - Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand
The Green Party says new Stats NZ data shows a 2.1% increase in household living costs is driven by out of control fossil fuel and power prices, and is hitting lower income people the hardest.
