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Economic Projections for 2026
Projected economic indicators as per Federal Reserve data.
Primary Sources
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Outlines 2025 Economic Outlook and ...
Got story updates? Submit your updates here. ›The Federal Reserve's data-driven approach to monetary policy aims to maintain a balanced economy and steady growth.NYC TodayIn a speech at the Liberty Science Center, a representative from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York provided an overview of the current U.S. economic landscape, including an analysis of price stability, the labor market, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy approach. The speaker highlighted the economy's resilience in the face of recent challenges and offered a positive outlook for 2026, projecting GDP growth of 2.25% and a gradual decline in the unemployment rate. Why it matters The Federal Reserve's economic outlook and policy decisions have a significant impact on businesses, consumers, and the overall health of the U.S. economy. This speech provides insights into the central bank's assessment of key economic indicators and its plans to balance its dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability, which are crucial for guiding economic decision-making and shaping the financial landscape. The details The speaker discussed the Federal Reserve's current focus on restoring inflation to its 2% longer-run goal while maintaining maximum employment. Recent data shows that while inflation has remained elevated, it has been impacted more gradually by trade policies than initially expected. The labor market has also shown signs of cooling, with job growth slowing and the unemployment rate rising. In response, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has shifted monetary policy toward a neutral stance, lowering the federal funds rate target range and emphasizing a data-driven approach to future adjustments. The speaker projected that inflation will decline to just under 2.5% in 2026, reaching the FOMC's goal in 2027, while real GDP growth is expected to reach 2.25% in 2026. On December 1, the FOMC halted Treasury securities and agency debt reductions, initiating reserve management purchases to maintain ample reserves.Last week, the FOMC lowered the federal funds rate target range by 0.25 percentage points to 3.5-3.75%. The players Federal Reserve Bank of New YorkThe regional Federal Reserve bank responsible for the Second District, which includes New York and northern New Jersey. Got photos? Submit your photos here. › What’s next The Federal Reserve will continue to closely monitor economic data and adjust monetary policy as needed to achieve its goals of maximum employment and pri...
The Fed - Wage and Income Growth Expectations Before, During, and After ...
April 13, 2026 Wage and Income Growth Expectations Before, During, and After the Pandemic Period Corinne Salter and Daniel Villar 1. Introduction Inflation expectations are understood to play a crucial role in inflation dynamics and in the conduct of monetary policy. Recently, there has also been a renewed interest in the relationship between inflation expectations and wages. This is because wage expectations and wage outcomes are important for the transmission of inflation expectations to actual inflation. Hajdini et al. (2023) find that consumers' inflation expectations have only very limited pass-through into expectations of future wage growth, while Pilossoph and Ryngaert (2025) find that higher inflation expectations make workers more likely to search for a different job, likely in the hope of raising their wages and protecting their real income. In this note, we look at the evolution of consumers' wage and income growth expectations before, during, and after the Covid-19 pandemic period, with a focus on the recent high-inflation and high-wage-growth period. As has been documented extensively (Hajdini et al., 2025), during this period, consumers' inflation expectations also rose substantially, before gradually receding and generally tracking the progress of actual inflation from 2021 to 2024. We look at whether consumers' expectations of their wage growth followed similar movements and tracked realized wage growth. Utilizing two surveys, we show that while price inflation, inflation expectations, and wage growth moved a lot, there was very little discernible movement in consumers' expectations about their future wage growth. These results raise the question of how workers and consumers form expectations about their own income, and why their wage expectations appear to underreact compared to inflation expectations. Given the importance of wages in the link between expectations and inflation, these patterns could be informative to evaluate theories of the role of expectations in inflation dynamics. 2. Data We will present patterns on the evolution of both wage growth expectations and actual wage growth. We use two sources of data for expectations: the New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) and the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers (UMSC).1 Both are monthly surveys that aim to capture a representative sample of the U.S. population. Respondents are asked about demographic characteristics and various aspects of their economic or...
Markets Data Dashboard - Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Federal Reserve Balance Sheet: The H.4.1 statistical release presents a balance sheet for each Federal Reserve Bank, a consolidated balance sheet for all 12 Reserve Banks, an associated statement that lists the factors affecting reserve balances of depository institutions, and several other tables presenting information on the assets ...
GDPNow - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.
