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Inflation Data: March 2024
Comparison of monthly and annual inflation metrics.
Primary Sources
Breakdown in Iran Ceasefire Talks Throws More Uncertainty Into ...
With the collapse of the U.S.-Iran peace talks and President Donald Trump threatening a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz to begin Monday morning, the economy and the markets are back in a state of heightened uncertainty.Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were down 450 points, and the price of a barrel of oil was back above $100 early Monday. That will drive gasoline prices higher after a weekend’s reprieve.“Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz,” Trump said in a social media post on Sunday.Vice President JD Vance returned to the U.S. on Sunday after talks broke off without any progress toward a ceasefire. It is not clear when, or if, they will resume.The Best Cartoons on Donald Trump“The Strait of Hormuz is key for oil prices and overall market sentiment, and it's clear that there will be more saber rattling over this waterway between the U.S. and Iran this week, and that could rattle markets and extend this stock market correction,” Clark Bellin, president and chief investment officer at Bellwether Wealth, wrote early Monday.“As Iran tensions increase, oil prices are increasing, and the stock market is still inversely correlated to oil prices,” Bellin added. The big question for stocks going forward is if this upcoming earnings season can be enough of a catalyst to dismantle the close link between stocks and oil, as corporate earnings are what traditionally drive stock prices.”At the same time, the prolonged rise in oil prices since the Feb. 28 attack on Iran by the U.S. and Israel is showing up in the inflation data. On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the consumer price index for March, showing inflation rose by 0.9% in March, triple its increase in February, and 3.3% annually, compared to 2.4% in the prior month. The core index, removing often volatile energy and food costs, rose 0.2% for the month and 2.5% annually.This week will bring another read on inflation, with the producer price index for March expected to show a similar uptick on the prices that businesses pay their suppliers.“Producer price inflation was already outpacing CPI and PCE inflation before the war, and the gap is widening,” Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank, wrote on Monday. “This mostly reflects the larger weight of petroleum products and other commodities in the PPI compared to the consumer basket. Even so, the ...
North American Morning Briefing: Stock Futures Slip as Iran Relief ...
OPENING CALL Stock futures were little changed and oil prices ticked higher Wednesday as the relief rally that put the S&P 500 within striking distance of an all-time high looked set for a breather. The three major indexes all rose Tuesday, with the Nasdaq up for a 10th straight session to notch its longest winning streak. But futures were stalling this morning after rising on Trump's declaration late Tuesday that the Iran war was nearly over. Still, confidence remains that the U.S. and Iran will broker a peace deal. "As the path continues to point firmly towards durable de-escalation, risk appetite should remain underpinned, with any equity dips continuing to be viewed as buying opportunities," Pepperstone said. Bank of America and Morgan Stanley are set to report quarterly results ahead of the opening bell, continuing a busy week for bank earnings. Stocks to Watch ASML lifted its guidance thanks to continued strong demand for AI chips. Its shares gained in Amsterdam. Broadcom climbed premarket after it expanded its partnership with Meta Platforms to provide the Facebook parent with more custom artificial-intelligence chips. Hermes reported slowing sales as the Iran war weighed on demand and Kering's sales fell. Both stocks slumped in in Paris. Watch For: U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes; EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report; Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman and Fed governor Michael Barr speak; Fed Beige Book; earnings from Bank of America, Morgan Stanley Today's Top Headlines/Must Reads: - The Bezos Vs. Musk Space Race Is Heating Up - Iran's Regime Has Changed-for the Worse - Process to Refund Tariffs to Begin Next Week MARKET WRAPS Forex: The dollar was trading steady against a basket of currencies. CBA said it wouldn't be a surprise if the two-week ceasefire in the Middle East was extended to accommodate further talks. Still, the world economy will need to adjust to smaller energy supply , it added. The euro fell against the dollar and could stay under pressure due to uncertainty over whether a U.S.-Iran peace deal can be agreed, ING said. Bonds: Treasury yields were up slightly after edging lower in Asian trade, with market sentiment remaining cautiously optimistic about the prospect of a peace deal in the Middle East. Long-end Treasury yields declined more than short-end yields, causing the curve to flatten. Beside headlines from the Middle East, Treasury investors will watch out for the Fed's Beige Book. En...
S&P 500 Nears Record High as Markets Price an End to War Risk
2 hours ago ... Producer prices in March rose just 0.5% — less than half the 1.1% Dow Jones consensus estimate — signaling that the war's inflationary impulse through energy ...
Stocks Stage a Relief Rally on Ceasefire News
The S&P 500 finished higher for a second straight week as investors reacted to a two-week US-Iran ceasefire that sparked hopes for relief from the global energy ...
