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Projected Economic Impact on Africa
Estimated impact of regional conflicts on GDP growth across affected African regions.
Primary Sources
Iran War to Exact High Cost on African Economy, World Bank Warns
The Iran war will fan inflation and cost Africa vital economic growth, the World Bank warned, with oil-importing nations including Kenya and Ethiopia potentially at the greatest risk.
How Africa is paying the price for Iran-U. S war
Ahunna Eziakonwa, the UN Assistant Secretary-General and Director of UNDP’s Regional Bureau for Africa, presents the Joint Policy brief on the impacts of the Middle East conflict on Africa to African member states ministers, on the margins of the 58th Session of the Economic Commission for Africa Conference of Finance, Planning and Economic Ministers in Tangier, Morocco. COURTESY PHOTO/UNDP REGIONAL BUREAU FOR AFRICA. Once again, Africa finds itself on the receiving end of global crises; paying the price in growth, stability, and livelihoods NEWS ANALYSIS | RONALD MUSOKE | When the so-called coordinated military strikes by the United States and Israel hit Iranian territory on Feb. 28, the escalation marked a decisive turning point in a conflict that has been decades in the making. What began as a shadow war; fought through proxies, cyber operations, and sporadic direct confrontations, had already intensified through retaliatory exchanges in 2024 and a brief but volatile 12-day war in June 2025. But the events of early 2026 transformed a simmering war into a full-scale geopolitical rupture. And as missiles flew across the Middle East, the economic shockwaves began traveling far beyond the region, reaching deep into African economies with surprising speed and severity. Just over a month later, on April 2, policymakers and development leaders gathered in Tangier, Morocco, on the margins of a major continental meeting to assess the fallout. What emerged from that briefing, convened on the margins of the 58th session of the Economic Commission for Africa conference of finance, planning and economic ministers was a stark message issued by the African Development Bank, the African Union Commission, the United Nations Development Programme, and United Nations Economic Commission for Africa. Senior officials from the four institutions collectively agreed that Africa is facing yet another external shock; only this time, the transmission channels are faster, more concentrated, and potentially more destabilizing than before. A shock with speed and scale Africa entered 2026 already on uncertain footing. Many economies were still growing below their pre-COVID trajectories, with limited fiscal space and elevated debt burdens. The Middle East conflict has now introduced a new layer of risk, threatening to derail fragile recoveries. According to the joint policy brief published by the convening institutions, the continent could lose at least 0.2 percentage points of GDP ...
Conflict in Middle East sends over 20 African currencies tumbling, UN warns
The currencies of at least 29 African countries have weakened sharply due to the war involving the United States and Israel against Iran, a policy brief presented at the 58th session of the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) in Morocco has revealed. The briefing was prepared by the African Development Bank, the African Union Commission, the UN Development Program, and UNECA ...
Middle East War Presents ‘Serious Risk’ for Africa, Warns Report
(AP) The Middle East war "presents a serious risk to Africa", the African Union and the African Development Bank (AfDB) said in a report seen by AFP Saturday. The conflict threatens to increase the cost of living and curtail growth on the continent, ...
