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External shocks and drought portend severe hardships and economic ...
Columns View(s): Are we likely to face a long period of shortages of essentials and an economic crisis? This is the question uppermost in the minds of our people as we face severe shortages of petrol, diesel, gas and kerosene and unprecedented warm weather with the prospect of an El Niño drought that threatens our food security. Will it be a long period of deprivation and shortages of essentials and a drought that threatens livelihoods in the country? Trump Although in his Wednesday night televised address, United States President Donald Trump, commenting on the war against Iran, said he would “finish the job”, once again, this is not likely to happen. In any case, Iran is not likely to open the Straits of Hormuz. This would mean continued high expenditure on our essential imports and less export revenue. Consequently, we are likely to face a crisis in our foreign reserves once again. Energy insecurity The country will face severe shortages of fuel, fertiliser, food and other essentials and necessities in the foreseeable future if the war in West Asia continues. Shortages The months ahead are likely to bring not only shortages of fuel, fertiliser, and other essential imports, but also restrictions on water and electricity, along with a decline in the production of rice and other domestically produced food. The combined impacts of the war in West Asia and the prospect of an El Niño–driven heatwave and drought are likely to cause unprecedented hardships for the country. Unless the war in West Asia comes to an end and the Strait of Hormuz is opened for shipping, the country will face both energy and food insecurity.Our foreign reserves would deplete to crisis proportions if the war continues. Peace prospects There are no signs of an end to the conflicts in West Asia. In fact, the deployment of troops on the ground by the US could escalate the war before domestic pressures may compel President Trump to announce once again that he has finished the job in days. His remarks need to be taken with a pinch of salt, as did his earlier statement that he has obliterated Iran’s nuclear programme and military capabilities. No solution Even if the US withdraws from the war, it is unlikely to resolve the crisis over shortages of fuel and high prices, as Iran is likely to continue the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s assurance Although Iran has assured Sri Lanka of free passage of ships carrying oil, we do not have ships to transport oil. We would have to depend on ...
A Super El Niño is coming. Here's how a hotter ocean could ... - CNN
Get ready to hear a lot more about El Niño during the next several months — and maybe even longer — as the infamous climate cycle returns again, developing and intensifying in the Pacific Ocean near the equator. If it forms as expected, this El Niño will redraw global weather maps, sparking flooding for some and drought and wildfires for others — all while simultaneously speeding up the pace of global warming. There are increasing indications that an El Niño is not only imminent — setting in by late summer or early fall — but that it could be a significant one, too. In fact, this might even qualify as a “Super El Niño,” which would significantly increase impacts felt around the world. Such extremely intense El Niños are rare. To declare an El Niño, in general, ocean temperatures in a particular region of the tropical Pacific must clear 0.5 degrees Celsius above the long-term average. A Super El Niño, in contrast, happens when temperatures are more than 2 degrees C above the average. Some typically reliable computer models, like the European modeling suite, are projecting just such an outcome for this go-around. El Niño and La Niña, names that translate to “the Boy” and “the Girl”, are recurring climate cycles in the tropical Pacific Ocean that happen every few years and can have profound effects on global weather patterns. In the case of El Niño, the cycle can bring both flooding and drought to different parts of Africa, help pummel the U.S. West Coast with winter storms and lead to more heat extremes globally. El Niño is characterized by unusually warm waters along the equatorial tropical Pacific Ocean, and a related series of shifts in winds and precipitation patterns in the atmosphere. It is a so-called coupled phenomenon, meaning that to get an El Niño, both the ocean and the atmosphere must be responding to one another in characteristic ways. The atmosphere tends to react to the warmer waters by shifting areas of heavy precipitation closer to that hot region of the ocean. The trade winds that typically blow from east to west near the equator can slacken and then reverse direction as well. Those shifts are significant enough to affect weather around the world, like a series of dominoes toppling over. Right now, huge volumes of unusually warm water are spreading under the ocean surface from the Western to the Eastern tropical Pacific, where that water slowly rises to the surface in a clear precursor to El Niño. Periodic areas of wind blowing from...
Department of Meteorology - Sri Lanka - Facebook
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Interactive El Niño Impacts World Map - El Niño Ready Nations
CCB is now an Official "Weather Ready Nation Ambassador" Top categories: Drought / El Niño Ready Nations (ENRNs) / Forecasting / Flood / Reports / Fire & Haze / Climate Change / Definitions / Tropical Storms / Heat Top tags: El Nino / Drought / Climate Change / Food security / Flood / Water / Africa / NOAA / Forecast / La Niña
