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Economic Indicators Summary
Comparison of key economic expectations and confidence metrics.
Primary Sources
Consumer inflation expectations jump amid Iran war price pressure
An article from Dive Brief Energy prices rose Tuesday as President Donald Trump threatened to eliminate Iranian civilization if Tehran fails to open the Strait of Hormuz and meet other demands. Published April 7, 2026 Fire rages after an attack on the Shahran oil depot in Tehran in June 2025. Stringer via Getty Images Dive Brief: Consumer expectations for inflation in a year jumped to 3.4% in March, with households anticipating that the price of gas will surge by 9.4% in the next 12 months, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said Tuesday in a survey report. Consumers do not expect pay gains to ease the pain from price pressures. The median expectation among consumers for wage growth fell 0.1 percentage point last month to 2.4%, at the bottom end of the range since May 2021, the New York Fed said. Rising inflation may inhibit consumer spending, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said Tuesday. “My concern at this immediate time is that we've got to get our heads around an oil shock, which is going to drive up prices in a stagflationary way,” he said. “There's heightened anxiety about this cost aspect and inflation coming back,” he added. Dive Insight: Small businesses, which employ 46% of U.S. workers, rank inflation as their top concern and hold a gloomier view of the economy than before the outbreak of war with Iran on Feb. 28, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce said Tuesday, reporting on results of a first quarter survey. Price pressures rose Tuesday as President Donald Trump threatened to eliminate Iranian civilization if Tehran fails to open the Strait of Hormuz and other demands by 8 p.m. Eastern Time. “A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. Uncertainty from the war “is clearly weighing on confidence” among small business owners, Neil Bradley, the chamber’s executive vice president, said Tuesday in a statement. Sentiment among small businesses declined for the second straight quarter, with the chamber’s confidence index falling to 67 from 68.4 during Q4 and from its recent high of 72 during Q3 2025, the chamber said. “Views of the national and local economies have turned more pessimistic, concerns over inflation have jumped and plans for future hiring and investment dropped markedly,” Bradley said. At the same time, business owners say their “operations remain stable,” he added. Rocketing gasoline prices have jarre...
Iran War May Boost Inflation, but Not Expectations, Per Dallas Fed ...
The effect on inflation expectations looks likely to be modest in the short-term and negligible in the longer-term, according to a Dallas Fed working paper published Tuesday.
Inflation Expectations Jump With Iran War, Fed Survey Finds
Near-term inflation expectations jumped in March by the most in a year as consumers anticipated higher gas and food prices with the onset of war in the Middle East, according to a Federal Reserve ...
Consumers Expect Iran War to Boost Inflation in the Near Term
Median inflation expectations for the 12 months ahead jumped by 0.4 percentage point to 3.4% for March, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's latest survey of consumer expectations ...
