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Global GDP & Inflation Forecast Scenarios
Comparison of IMF growth and inflation projections under different conflict scenarios.
Primary Sources
IMF warns of worse outcome if Iran war drags into 2027 | The Jerusalem Post
Jerusalem Post/Middle East/Iran NewsThe IMF issued three scenarios for global GDP amid uncertainty over the war in the Middle East: the main "reference forecast," a middle "adverse scenario," and a much worse "severe scenario."Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund speaks during the Milken Institute Global Conference 2026 in Beverly Hills, California, US, May, 4, 2026.(photo credit: MIKE BLAKE/REUTERS)ByREUTERSMAY 5, 2026 02:36The head of the International Monetary Fund on Monday warned that inflation was already picking up and the global economy could face a "much worse outcome" if the war in the Middle East drags on into 2027 and oil prices hit around $125 per barrel.IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said the continuation of the war meant that the global lender's "reference scenario," assuming a short-lived conflict, which forecast a minor growth slowdown to 3.1% and a minor increase in prices to 4.4%, was no longer possible."This scenario, with every day that passes, is further and further behind in the rear-view mirror," Georgieva said.The continuation of the war, a forecast of oil prices at or above $100 per barrel, and rising inflationary pressures meant the IMF's "adverse scenario" was already in effect, she said.Long-term inflation expectations remained anchored, and financial conditions were not tightening, but that could change if the war continued, she told a conference hosted by the Milken Institute.Vessels in the Strait of Hormuz near Bandar Abbas, Iran, May 4, 2026. (credit: Amirhosein Khorgooi/ISNA/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS)"Now, if this continues into 2027 and we have oil prices of $125 more or less, then we have to expect a much worse outcome," she said. "Then we are going to see inflation climbing up, and then inevitably, inflation expectations would start de-anchoring."Three possible scenarios for global GDP growth pathThe IMF last month issued three scenarios for the global GDP growth path in 2026 and 2027 amid massive uncertainty over the war in the Middle East: the main "reference forecast," a middle "adverse scenario," and the much worse "severe scenario."The adverse scenario forecasts global growth slowing to 2.5% in 2026 and headline inflation of 5.4%. The severe scenario forecast growth of just 2% and headline inflation of 5.8%.Chevron Chairman and CEO Mike Wirth, speaking on the same panel, said that physical shortages in oil supply would begin appearing around the w...
IMF Chief says Iran war fallout would take 3-4 months even if fighting ...
May 5, 2026 10:22 pm The Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Kristalina Georgieva says the economic fallout from the war with Iran would take at least three to four months to ease, even if the fighting were to stop immediately. The IMF Managing Director made this assertion during an interview with US outlet CNBC. - Agencies Disclaimer: All the comments will be moderated by the AD editorial. Abstain from posting comments that are obscene, defamatory or slanderous. Please avoid outside hyperlinks inside the comment and avoid typing all capitalized comments. Help us delete comments that do not follow these guidelines by flagging them(mouse over a comment and click the flag icon on the right side). Do use these forums to voice your opinions and create healthy discourse. Most Viewed BASL expresses grave concern over President�s remarks on judiciary Over Rs. 40 million in assets linked to drug network seized in Panadura National Fertilizer Secretariat rejects claims of overpriced fertilizer imports Sri Lanka, Maldives push for stronger economic partnership at Colombo business forum UAE says its air defenses are responding to missiles from Iran Most Viewed Video Stories 🔴LIVE | Ada Derana Prime Time News Bulletin
Iran Economy: 4 Charts Show War Is Crushing Growth, Fueling Inflation ...
The economic damage to Iran has accelerated since the US imposed a naval blockade, which has hit Iran's oil sales and cut the nation off from imports.
IMF Cuts Growth Outlook, Warns of Potential Global Recession If Iran ...
The IMF warns of a potential global recession due to the Middle East conflict, revising growth forecasts and highlighting inflation risks from high energy prices.
