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Inflation Forecasts (2026)
Projected inflation trends for the second and final quarters of 2026.
Primary Sources
Hungary's Central Bank to Hold Rates Despite Post-Election Rally ...
Hungary's central bank will probably keep interest rates unchanged after a post-election market rally, as policymakers await government plans on tackling a bloated budget and on gaining access ...
ING analysts foresee Hungary's central bank maintaining a 6.25% base ...
ING analysts Frantisek Taborsky and Zoltán Homolya project that the Magyar Nemzeti Bank will keep its base rate at 6.25% through 2026. They link this to geopolitical uncertainty, higher energy prices and Hungary’s vulnerabilities, and they expect a hawkish, wait-and-see approach. They state that a rate cut is not expected in April. They also say the central bank may use firm communication aimed at foreign exchange stability, with attention on EUR/HUF levels. Inflation Outlook And Policy Stance They forecast inflation will keep rising over the rest of the year. They expect inflation to average 3.5% in the second quarter, move above the tolerance band in the second half of the year, and average 4.3% in the final quarter. They add that, under their baseline view, they do not see a scenario for a rate cut this year while energy prices stay higher. They also outline a worst-case path where inflation exceeds 6% in the third quarter, which they say could lead to rate rises. Given the expectation that Hungary’s central bank will keep its base rate at 6.25% for the remainder of the year, traders should reconsider any positions betting on monetary easing. The forward rate agreements market is still pricing in at least a 25 basis point cut by year-end, which creates a clear discrepancy with this hawkish outlook. This suggests opportunities in paying the fixed rate on Hungarian forint interest rate swaps, anticipating that short-term rates will remain higher for longer than the market currently expects. The primary driver for this policy is persistent inflation fueled by high energy costs, with Brent crude oil prices holding around $95 per barrel this month. We saw this pressure in the latest March 2026 inflation data, which showed a headline reading of 3.7%, confirming an accelerating trend. As we project inflation to average 4.3% in the final quarter, traders can use inflation swaps to position for consumer prices rising above the official tolerance band later this year. Fx Strategy And Eur Huf Levels For the foreign exchange market, the central bank’s desire for stability suggests the EUR/HUF pair will face significant resistance above the 390 level. The forint has strengthened considerably from the weaker levels we saw during the energy price shocks of late 2025, and the MNB will use its hawkish tone to keep it that way. Therefore, selling call options on EUR/HUF with strikes above that level could be a viable strategy to collect premium from the expected range-bo...
Main economic and financial indicators - MNB
The summary table contains the key economic indicators, such as the volume index of gross domestic product, consumer price index and the unemployment rate. In addition, the table also contains the current account balance, the amount of foreign direct investments in Hungary and households' net financial worth.
Hungary: Post-Orbán era suggests political reset, market optimism and ...
Event Hungary's parliamentary elections on 12 April 2026 marked a historic political shift, ending Viktor Orbán's 16‑year rule. The vote was also notable for recording the highest turnout in a Hungarian general election since the fall of communism in the early 1990s, underscoring the scale of public mobilisation behind the change. The opposition Tisza (Respect and Freedom) party, led by ...
