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Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (2021-2024)
Monthly trends of the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index reported by the New York Fed.
Primary Sources
NY Fed says March supply chain pressures highest since start of 2023
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NY Fed reports March supply chain pressures highest since early ...
Listen to this article (Reuters) – Supply chain pressures heated up in March to levels last seen at the start of 2023, data released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said on Monday. In Brief: New York Fed global supply chain pressure index rose to 0.68 in March March reading up from 0.54 in February, below January 2023 peak of 1.09 John Williams highlights supply disruptions tied to Middle East war Supply chain pressures complicate Fed inflation outlook and rate cuts In its latest Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, the bank said the measure rose to 0.68, a modest increase from 0.54 in February. A reading of zero indicates normal supply pressures, while a positive number indicates mounting pressure. March compares to the 1.09 reading last seen in January 2023, when supply chain pressures were abating. The New York Fed did not provide any reason for the rise in the March reading, but it is almost certainly related to disruptions tied to the war in the Middle East that was started by the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran. Even with the rise in March, the most recent reading is well off the peak 4.49 reading seen in December 2021, when COVID-19-related pressures were bearing down on the economy. With pandemic factors removed, the March reading compared with levels seen in the run-up to the health crisis. Supply chain pressures can be major drivers of inflation and were a key factor in the surge in price pressures that followed the pandemic, which in turn required a substantial effort by the central bank to bring inflation back to the 2% target. The Fed was getting nearer to achieving its target until President Donald Trump returned to office just over a year ago. Progress was interrupted as the president first hit the economy with wide-ranging import tax increases. Now, the war has led to significant disruptions in energy supplies, which have already driven up costs around the world and threaten even worse outcomes the longer the president pursues the war. Speaking last week, New York Fed leader John Williams noted that pressures in supply chains have started to build. “Uncertainty around the future path of inflation is high,” he said, and the Middle East war “could result in a large supply shock with pronounced effects that simultaneously raise inflation through a surge in intermediate costs and commodity prices and dampen economic activity.” “This has begun to play out already,” Williams said. While data in hand as of last week did not show any “signif...
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