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Daily Vessel Transit Through Strait of Hormuz
Comparison of tanker traffic before and after the current geopolitical crisis.
Primary Sources
Oil spikes over 3% as Iran nuclear standoff threatens supply from Hormuz
A breakthrough could ease supply fears and push prices lower, but any collapse in talks—or renewed military action—would likely send futures sharply higher.
World Oil Prices Surge Above $110 as Hormuz Tensions Drive Supply Fears
NEW YORK — Global oil prices climbed sharply on Monday, with Brent crude rising above $110 per barrel as escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and uncertainty over Iranian supply continued to unsettle energy markets, pushing traders to price in potential disruptions to one of the world's most critical shipping lanes.Brent crude, the international benchmark, settled at $110.54 per barrel, up 1.18 percent on the day, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose to $101.02 per barrel. The gains extended a multi-week rally fueled by geopolitical risks, with prices now up more than 68 percent compared to the same time last year.The latest surge comes as Iran has threatened to impose tolls on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow chokepoint that carries roughly 20 percent of the world's traded oil. Any significant disruption there could send prices even higher, analysts warn, potentially pushing Brent toward $120 or more in a worst-case scenario."Geopolitical risk is firmly back in the driver's seat," said Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets. "The combination of restricted flows through Hormuz, falling inventories and heightened U.S.-Iran tensions is creating a classic supply shock environment."Drivers Behind the Price SpikeSeveral factors are converging to support higher oil prices. The fragile ceasefire in the region has shown signs of strain, with indirect talks hosted by Pakistan stalling. Former President Donald Trump, a major influence in U.S. politics, has issued stern warnings to Iran, telling Tehran it would face a "very bad time" if it disrupts the strait.Energy markets are also reacting to tightening physical supplies. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported one of the fastest inventory drawdowns on record outside of pandemic conditions, with global stocks falling by an estimated 246 million barrels across March and April. Saudi Arabia has also cut output to its lowest level since 1990, further tightening the market.OPEC+ production discipline, combined with strong demand from Asia and recovering economic activity in major consuming nations, has left the market with little spare capacity. This structural tightness means even modest supply disruptions can cause outsized price reactions.U.S. gasoline prices have also climbed, approaching $4.55 per gallon in some regions, adding to consumer concerns about inflation and household budgets heading into the summer driving season.Impact on Glo...
Breakthrough in Hormuz? Asian oil tankers 'moving again'
Markets eye cautious reopening of vital Hormuz corridor for Asian crude flowsLast updated: May 20, 2026 | 09:452 MIN READAnalysts say a renewed tanker traffic may reflect growing optimism around backchannel diplomacy as US President Donald Trump suggested progress in talks with Tehran and hinted that the conflict could de-escalate and oil prices could go down “very quickly.” A screengrab shows US Central Command military operations to enforce the naval blockade on Iran, in place for nearly six weeks now.X | @CentComThree crude oil supertankers bound for East Asia are reportedly attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, signaling a possible easing of one of the world’s most dangerous energy chokepoints.Bloomberg reported that a South Korean-flagged VLCC appears to be making a crossing through the strait — potentially the first successful transit by a South Korean supertanker since the escalation of the US-Israeli conflict with Iran began.At the same time, Reuters, citing LSEG and Kpler shipping data, reported that two Chinese crude tankers carrying roughly 4 million barrels of oil have already exited the Strait of Hormuz en route to China.Closely-watched movementAsian refineries are mostly built for crude oil sourced from the Gulf.The movement is being closely watched by global markets because the Strait of Hormuz handles nearly 20% of the world’s oil and LNG flows, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Any disruption there can send shockwaves through global energy prices, inflation and supply chains.Analysts say the renewed tanker traffic may reflect growing optimism around backchannel diplomacy after President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance suggested progress in talks with Tehran and hinted that the conflict could de-escalate and oil prices could go down “very quickly.”Shipping intelligence firms note that tanker activity through Hormuz remains far below normal levels. Yet even limited movement is being interpreted by traders as a sign that energy exports from the Gulf may gradually resume after months of volatility and military risk.FACT FILEAround 90% of Iran's own oil exports pass through the Strait. Oil constitutes 40%+ of Iran's total export revenue. With the US naval blockade on Iranian ports, the country’s economy is haemorrhaging.China, Iran's top trading partner and buyer of ~90% of its exported oil, receives 37.7% of ALL Hormuz crude flows. Half of China's entire oil import supply runs through this strait. ...
Oil prices rise as investors doubt breakthrough in US-Iran peace talks
SINGAPORE: Oil prices climbed on Friday (May 22) as investors doubted the prospects of a breakthrough in United States-Iran peace talks, but held on track for a weekly loss.Brent crude futures were up US$3.30, or 3,2 per cent, at US$105.88 a barrel by 8.45am GMT (4.05pm, Singapore time), while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures were US$2.53, or 2.6 per cent, higher at US$98.88.On a weekly basis, Brent was over 3 per cent lower, and WTI was down around 6 per cent, with prices fluctuating sharply as expectations for a peace deal shifted.A senior Iranian source told Reuters gaps with the US have narrowed and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke of "some good signs" in talks, but the countries are still divided on Tehran's uranium stockpile and controls on the Strait of Hormuz. "Oil prices would only trend lower when oil market fundamentals materially improve, which looks destined to stretch into 2027," said David Oxley, chief commodities economist at Capital Economics.Six weeks since a fragile ceasefire took effect, efforts to end the war have shown little progress, while elevated oil prices have fuelled concern over inflation and the outlook for the global economy."WTI is likely to remain in a US$90 to US$110 range next week, as it has largely done since late March," said Satoru Yoshida, a commodity analyst with Rakuten Securities.BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, raised its average 2026 dated Brent price forecast to US$90 from US$81.50 to reflect the supply deficit, time required to repair damaged Middle East energy infrastructure and the six-to-eight week post-conflict normalisation window.Around 20 per cent of global energy supplies transited the strait before the war, which has removed 14 million barrels per day of oil - or 14 per cent of global supply - from the market, including exports from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait.Full oil flows through the strait will not return before the first or second quarter of 2027, even if the conflict ended now, the head of the UAE's state oil firm ADNOC said.Seven leading OPEC+ oil-producing countries will likely agree to a modest hike to July output when they meet on Jun 7, four sources said, though delivery for several remains disrupted by the Iran war.
