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Business Sentiment Among German Exporters (2026 Outlook)
Percentage of firms projecting growth vs those concerned about specific risks.
Primary Sources
German exporters stay upbeat despite Iran war, Allianz Trade says
Containers are stacked at the loading terminal "Altenwerder" in the port of Hamburg, Germany, February 17, 2025. REUTERS/Fabian Bimmer/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tabBERLIN, April 8 (Reuters) - German exporters are still broadly optimistic about growth in overseas sales despite the Iran war, although concerns over payment delays, supply chains and geopolitical risks are rising, Allianz Trade said on Wednesday.In a survey taken before the U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, the trade credit insurer said 83% of German firms still expected export revenues to rise in 2026 above the global average of 75%. Some 6,000 companies across 13 markets participated in the survey. Sign up here.Most German exporters expect only moderate growth over the next 12 months, however, and sentiment remains fragile.TRADE WAR WORRIES OUTWEIGH MIDDLE EAST CONFLICTAllianz Trade said the impact of the Iran war on exporters' expectations had so far been limited compared with the shock caused by trade tensions in 2025.At the same time, German firms were more pessimistic about the fallout of the U.S. trade war than they were immediately after "Liberation Day" a year ago when U.S. President Donald Trump announced his tariff plans, with 49% expecting negative effects in 2026.Nearly half of German exporters expect worsening payment behaviour and 40% envisage a rise in payment defaults.The biggest risks cited in the survey were geopolitical tensions, supply-chain disruption, and payment delays.Allianz Trade said Europe and Asia were becoming more attractive destinations for future export growth, while the U.S. was losing appeal.Reporting by Maria Martinez Editing by Madeline ChambersOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tabMaria Martinez is a Reuters correspondent in Berlin covering German economics and the ministry of finance. Maria previously worked at Dow Jones Newswires in Barcelona covering European economics and at Bloomberg, Debtwire and the New York Stock Exchange in New York City. She graduated with a Master of International Affairs at Columbia University as a Fulbright scholar.
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