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Global Risk Indicators (2026 Forecast)
Projected risk factors influencing global credit conditions in 2026.
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Global Credit Outlook: Research & Credit Ratings
Access our credit outlook research and register for our events to stay ahead of the credit curve.01Insights 02Outlooks 03Sector Outlooks Heatmap Outlook 2026Global Economic OutlookGlobal growth is set to hold steady despite the oil‑price spike driven by the Iran conflict. Strong AI investment and fiscal support are cushioning shocks, while eurozone momentum is improving as Germany recovers. US consumption and China’s economy are expected to cool next year, and Fitch has nudged up its global growth forecasts, though energy‑price risks persist.04Past Webinars 05Videos Macro CreditAnalysis and insights on key global and regional credit themes and risks.
Risks to global credit are up: Fitch | Investment Executive
Even if Middle East conflict abates, global risk outlook has fundamentally shifted By: James Langton April 17, 2026 April 17, 202614:49 iStock James Langton Even if the conflict in the Middle East is resolved quickly, and shipping disruptions ease, the risks facing the global credit environment have already shifted significantly, says Fitch Ratings. In a new report, the rating agency said that conflict poses a “major risk” to its economic forecasts and assumptions, with the prospect of an ongoing global supply shock in energy representing a clear downside risk to credit conditions. “This would result in direct feedthroughs to credits from higher energy input costs and indirectly through lower demand, higher inflation and tighter financing conditions,” it said — adding that this “could also have material negative ratings implications” across a range of sectors and regions. Indeed, even if the conflict ends without flaring up again, and the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened, the risk landscape has already changed, the report said. Already, the episode has sparked an increase in global oil and European gas price assumptions from its base case, Fitch noted. “Commodity prices and investments in the Gulf region could carry a long-term geopolitical risk premium, depending on the outcome of a diplomatic settlement,” it said. Additionally, there are other major risks to global credit beyond the war, Fitch said. The fracture between the U.S. and Europe over the handling of the conflict, “could also undermine transatlantic relations and the stability of the NATO alliance,” it said. And, risks beyond geopolitics — including the prospect of AI-related disruptions, higher sovereign bond yields, a stronger U.S. dollar, and shifting rate expectations due to resurgent inflation pressures — could also “add pressure to funding and liquidity conditions,” it said.
Fitch Ratings: Credit Ratings & Analysis For Financial Markets
Fitch Ratings is a leading provider of credit ratings, commentary and research for global capital markets.
Middle East Energy Shock Starts to Appear in Higher ... - Fitch Ratings
Related Content: Fitch-20 Economic Monitor: April 2026 Fitch Ratings-London-14 April 2026: A steep rise in global energy prices has begun to be reflected in inflation data for March, which has now been reported by most of the world's major economies, including the US and euro area, Fitch Ratings says. Prices rose by an average of 0.8% month on month in the major developed economies where ...
