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ECB Set to Hold Rates as Policymakers Assess War Impact
Skip to content BloombergConnecting decision makers to a dynamic network of information, people and ideas, Bloomberg quickly and accurately delivers business and financial information, news and insight around the world For Customers SupportAmericas+1 212 318 2000EMEA+44 20 7330 7500Asia Pacific+65 6212 1000 Company Communications Follow Products Industry Products Media Media Services Company Communications Follow Products Industry Products Media Media Services BloombergConnecting decision makers to a dynamic network of information, people and ideas, Bloomberg quickly and accurately delivers business and financial information, news and insight around the world For Customers SupportAmericas+1 212 318 2000EMEA+44 20 7330 7500Asia Pacific+65 6212 1000 Apr 30th, 2026ECB Set to Hold Rates as Policymakers Assess War ImpactA unanimous survey of economists said the European Central Bank is set to keep interest rates unchanged at 2% on Thursday, as policymakers continue to weigh the economic impact of the Iran war. Bloomberg's Oliver Crook reports from Frankfurt.
ECB set to hold rates despite Iran war energy shock
Energy costs have spiked since the near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world's oil and gas usually passes, following the outbreak of the US-Israeli conflict against Iran.Eurozone inflation is already picking up -- it jumped to three percent in April, above the ECB's two-percent target -- but the central bank appears reluctant to quickly hike rates, fearing higher borrowing costs could weigh on the region's already lacklustre growth.The ECB will thus keep its key deposit rate at two percent, where it has been since June last year, as it waits to see how the war plays out, analysts believe.The central bank for the 21-nation euro area announces its rate decision at 1215 GMT.Italian bank UniCredit wrote in a note that it did not "see the urgency" for the Frankfurt-based institution to act, particularly as inflation was around the ECB's target before the conflict."The weakening of the outlook for demand, particularly for private consumption, reinforces the case for the ECB to be patient," it said.Eurozone economic growth slowed to 0.1 percent in the first three months of the year, official data showed Thursday, while figures since the outbreak of the war have pointed to falling consumer and investor confidence and weakening business activity.Looking to JuneOther central banks are also taking a cautious approach.The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady Wednesday, its third pause in a row, as it also waits for the full impacts of the war to become clear. Speaking in Berlin earlier this month, ECB President Christine Lagarde said the institution was facing "double uncertainty" © FREDERICK FLORIN / AFP/File The Bank of England, due to meet Thursday ahead of the ECB, is also expected to keep borrowing costs on hold.But, with inflation higher than in other advanced economies, some members of its rate-setting committee may vote for a hike, analysts say.While expectations of a swift eurozone rate hike have been tempered somewhat, some are now pencilling one in for the ECB's June meeting.All eyes will be on President Christine Lagarde's post-rate call press conference for clues as to the path forward."Any hints about a June move will be taken on board," said ING bank economist Carsten Brzeski.'Not in a rush'Much of the inflation and growth outlook depends on whether Iran and the United States can come to a lasting agreement that secures energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, a factor over which the ECB has no con...
Europe's central banks in 'wait-and-see' mode on interest rates
Europe's central banks are in focus this week as the European Central Bank and Bank of England release their latest monetary policy decisions against a backdrop of rising prices and growth fears.
Interest rates expected to be held as uncertainty over impact of Iran ...
Future base rate changes are hard to predict as analysts judge the economic impact of the Iran war.
