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Economic Growth Projections for Sri Lanka
Projected economic growth rates under different global scenarios
Primary Sources
Dr. Ganeshan Wignaraja cautions Sri Lanka needs to plan a 18th IMF ...
Visiting Senior Research Fellow at ODI Global, London (formerly the Overseas Development Institute), London, and Professorial Fellow at Gateway House, Mumbai, Dr. Ganeshan Wignaraja recently cautioned that Sri Lanka should consider an 18th IMF program. He said that with the current program ending in mid-2027 and significant debt repayments due from 2028, the compounding effects of Cyclone ‘Ditwah’ and the Middle East war have made what was once a contingency increasingly inevitable, and that planning for it is the responsible course of action. Dr. Wignaraja made these observations when he addressed the RCSS Strategic Dialogue – 4 on the theme “A Global Economy in the Shadow of the Middle East War: Implications for Sri Lanka’s Debt Recovery” on 4 May 2026 at the Regional Centre for Strategic Studies (RCSS) in Colombo. The dialogue brought together senior serving and retired policymakers, diplomats, defence personnel, academics, think-tank representatives, civil society representatives and media representatives. RCSS Executive Director Ambassador (Retd.) Ravinatha Aryasinha, who moderated the session, noted that beyond assessing the immediate effects of the multiple crises caused by the war in the Middle East, the discussion was intended to take a forward-looking view and critically examine both internal and external measures that could be actively pursued to overcome Sri Lanka’s current predicament, while also providing lessons for other comparable regional and Global South countries. Dr. Wignaraja opened his presentation by drawing on the IMF’s April 2026 World Economic Outlook, which projects global growth slowing to 3.1% in 2026, with downside risks dominating as prolonged conflict, geopolitical fragmentation and renewed trade tensions weigh most heavily on emerging and developing economies. It is against this external environment, he said, that Sri Lanka’s vulnerabilities must be understood. From being treated by the IMF as a post-2022 “poster child” of IMF-aided economic stabilisation and the post-budget optimism that emerged in late 2025, the compounding shocks of Cyclone ‘Ditwah’ and the ramifications of the recent Middle East war have simultaneously affected Sri Lanka through rising oil, gas and fertiliser prices, disrupted remittances, airline and tourism disruptions, and a contraction in exports, particularly tea, of which approximately 20% is exported to the Middle East. Despite this, he also noted that the war presents some long-term opportuniti...
Sri Lanka under compulsion for yet another IMF programme - top ...
Top economist Ganeshan Wignaraja, at a recent roundtable discussion organized by the Regional Centre for Strategic Studies (RCSS), drew comparisons between the global outlook based on forecasts by ...
Sri Lanka under compulsion for yet another IMF programme
RCSS Executive Director Ravinatha Aryasinha (centre left), Dr. Ganeshan Wignaraja (centre right), and former Ambassador Esala Weerakoon with other ...
IMF omission of Sri Lanka GDP projections signals fragile recovery
According to Ganeshan Wignaraja, former Director of Research at the ADB Institute in Tokyo, the omission reflects deeper uncertainties tied to Sri Lanka's ongoing sovereign debt restructuring process. He noted that while Sri Lanka qualifies as a middle-income country with per capita income exceeding $4,000, the absence of formal projections signals a lack of clarity regarding its medium-term ...
