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Projected Oil Price Scenarios (2026)
ECB projections for oil prices per barrel in USD.
Primary Sources
ECB's Vujcic Says Energy Prices Are Still Very Close to Baseline
European Central Bank Governing Council member Boris Vujcic said energy costs remain near the base-case scenario, despite rising since the recent cease-fire.
ECB's Vujcic: Energy prices still very close to baseline scenario
April 13, 2026-FXnews ECB’s Vujcic: Energy prices still very close to baseline scenario The ECB baseline scenario assumed that while energy prices would spike in the short term, they would eventually stabilize. The ECB expected oil prices to peak around $90 per barrel in Q2 of 2026 before gradually declining. The adverse scenario saw prices reaching $119 per barrel, while the worst-case scenario projected oil to spike to $145 per barrel and remain persistently high. Despite the upward revision in inflation, the ECB has maintained a patient approach to avoid overreacting to the supply-side shock that is also expected to dampen economic growth. The ECB has explicitly stated it is not pre-committing to a specific rate path. Their response to the current baseline is characterized by neutrality and data-dependency. The central bank is willing to look through temporary energy spikes unless they begin to drive up wages and inflation expectations. If the baseline holds, the ECB will just keep rates on hold for the foreseeable future ECB’s Vujcic: Energy prices still very close to baseline scenario For News Subscribe Us! If you wish to receive the weekly market report, please subscribe. For a daily report please go to contact form to speak to the sales team. You have been successfully Subscribed! Ops! Something went wrong, please try again. Payment Guides Formats and Codes Useful Links ALL RIGHTS RESERVED © 2024 HUBFXBusiness Office at 7 Bell Yard, London, WC2A 2JR, United KingdomHUBFX Asia Business Office at100 Peck Seah St, 079333, Singapore ALL RIGHTS RESERVED © 2025 HUBFXBusiness Office at 7 Bell Yard, London, WC2A 2JR, United KingdomHUBFX Asia Business Office at100 Peck Seah St, 079333, Singapore HUBFX’s payment and foreign currency exchange services are provided by Global Currency Exchange Network Ltd T/A GC Partners. Global Currency Exchange Network Ltd is authorised by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations, 2017 (FRN: 504346). Registered as a Money Services Business, regulated by HM Revenue & Customs (“HMRC”) under the Money Laundering Regulations 2017. (Registration number is 12137189). Registered in England and Wales. Company number 04675786. Registered Office 3rd Floor 100 New Bond Street, London, England, W1S 1SP For clients based in the European Economic Area, payment services for HUBFX are provided by CurrencyCloud B.V.. Registered in the Netherlands No. 72186178. Registered Office: Nieuwezijds Voorburgwal 296 – 298, Mindspace Nie...
ECB Signals Potential April Rate Action as Energy Prices Threaten ...
The European Central Bank may adjust interest rates as soon as April if elevated energy prices persist, ECB Governing Council member Madis Muller warned. Oil prices have risen 3%+ amid Middle East geopolitical tensions, forcing European policymakers to reassess inflation trajectories while the Fed holds steady.
ECB Yet to See Big Second-Round Inflation Impacts From Energy Price ...
WASHINGTON, April 16 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank cannot take an April 30 interest rate hike off the table just yet, even if energy prices are not far from the baseline forecast ...
