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ECB rate cut odds & hike probabilities by meeting
European Central Bank Deposit Facility Rate: Twelve-Month Market Pricing As of: 2025-12-26 Deposit Facility: 2.00% Main Refinancing Rate: 2.15% Marginal Lending Facility: 2.40% Last €STR: — Step: Source: pages /api/ecb/latest Next decision in — — Next meeting pricing — — Current Rate 2.00% Last €STR: — PATH OF ECB DEPOSIT RATE: MARKET EXPECTATION Showing cached data Meeting Implied Rate(Post-Meeting) Probability of Hike(Cut) # of Hikes(Cuts) Δ vs Current (bps) Feb 05, 2026 2.01% 4.0% 0.04 1.0 Mar 19, 2026 2.00% (4.0%) 0.00 0.0 Apr 30, 2026 1.99% (2.8%) (0.03) -0.7 Jun 11, 2026 2.00% 0.8% (0.02) -0.5 Jul 23, 2026 2.00% 2.8% 0.01 0.2 Sep 10, 2026 2.01% 2.4% 0.03 0.8 Oct 29, 2026 2.02% 3.6% 0.07 1.7 Data updated daily. The displayed "as of" date matches the underlying data which lags. Dates and times in EST/EDT. * indicates an expected but unofficial meeting date. How to read this ECB rate screen Interpreting the table and chart Table rows correspond to Governing Council decision dates scheduled over the next year or so. Implied post-meeting rate is the expected deposit facility rate after each meeting. Probability of hike/cut displays an approximate probability of a rate move at each meeting (step size defaults to 25bps moves but can be changed in the drop-down menu). # of hikes/cuts shows the cumulative number of hikes/cuts expected between now and each meeting (also dependent on the step size selected). Δ vs current (bps) shows the cumulative change in the deposit facility rate priced-in between now and each meeting in basis points (+12.5bps = +0.125%). The chart plots the implied post-meeting rate across all upcoming meetings. An upward-sloping line indicates that markets are pricing further tightening over time; a flat line suggests an extended pause; a downward-sloping line indicates expected cuts. Use the screen to see what is currently priced in and to compare today’s expectations with those from previous weeks or months. What this page measures This tool aims to display the expected future decisions of the Governing Council regarding the deposit facility rate. The table and chart reflect market pricing, not a forecast. When the site refers to “probabilities,” it is describing the likelihood implied by tradable instruments that reference future policy settings. In other words, it is a snapshot of consensus pricing that may be wrong and will often move as new information arrives. Rate path expectations typically change in response...
The Middle East Oil Shock Just Rewrote the ECB's Interest Rate Outlook
The March inflation data has fundamentally shifted the market's read on ECB policy. A central bank expected to hold or cut is now being priced for hikes, with June the most likely flashpoint. The driver is clear: an energy shock from the Iran conflict has pushed prices across Spain, Germany, and the broader bloc well above the 2% target.
Eurozone Inflation Rises Amid Iran War but Will the ECB Raise Rates?
Eurozone Inflation Rises Amid Iran War but Will the ECB Raise Rates? Preliminary inflation jumps in March, below economists' forecasts but well above ECB's 2% target, as high energy risks make rate hikes more likely.
ECB Faces Tough Balancing Act as Inflation Rebounds and Rate Hike Bets ...
ECB is likely to hold steady, using time to assess whether energy-driven inflation spills into broader price pressures. But the tone is clearly shifting. If oil prices remain elevated and inflation edges higher in the coming months, a June rate hike looks increasingly likely.
