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The economic reality of war - by Richard Murphy
War does not just destroy what it directly touches. It also reveals the weaknesses in the systems we rely upon to survive.That is why the arguments made on Substack by heterodox economist Steve Keen matter. His focus is not simply on the immediate consequences of conflict in the Middle East, but on what that conflict exposes. And what it exposes is deeply uncomfortable.Firstly, what is being described as a geopolitical crisis is, in reality, a systemic economic shock. The possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz is not simply about oil supply to a handful of countries. It is about the interruption of flows that underpin the entire global economy. Energy, fertiliser, and key inputs move through tightly integrated systems. When one part fails, the effects do not remain contained. They spread.Secondly, this highlights just how inadequate mainstream economics has become. We have been told for decades that markets are flexible, that shortages are temporary, and that substitution will always be found. But this is not how the real world works. Production is not infinitely adaptable. It is specialised, concentrated, and dependent on timing. If fertiliser is not available when crops are planted, the opportunity is gone. No price signal can bring it back.Thirdly, and most importantly, production is rooted in physical reality. It depends on energy and material inputs. Remove those inputs and outputs fall. That is not a theory. It is a fact. Keen’s modelling suggests that reductions in energy supply translate directly into reductions in economic output. If that is so, then the consequences of disruption are immediate and severe.We have built an economic narrative that ignores physical reality, and we are now at risk of discovering the cost of that mistake. This leads to the most troubling conclusion. The greatest risk from this conflict may not be those who die in battle, or amongst those who are direct civilian casualties, tragic though those deaths are. It may instead be those who die as a consequence of system failure, and most obviously through famine.Modern agriculture is heavily dependent on fossil fuels and fertilisers. Disrupt those inputs, and food production falls. In a world that already operates with limited reserves, that is a profound risk. And it is not confined to poorer countries. Many high-income nations have chosen efficiency over resilience. They, too, are exposed.I cannot say whether the most extreme forecasts Steve Keen makes are right. I do not ...
How governments and corporations profit from conflict - including ...
The concept of the military industrial complex reveals how war and profit have long been interconnected. Military contracts for weapons, equipment, and supplies generate massive financial gains ...
How the War Is Redefining Gulf Economic Power and Energy Strategy
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states are confronting the greatest threat to their economic security and energy strategy since their formation. The economic fallout of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran is severe, but uneven across the Gulf. So too is each state's ability to sustain energy exports and protect critical infrastructure—both of which have been targeted unequally by Iran. The ...
The deep economic and strategic motives behind the Iran War
Corbett Report questions Iran war narrative, pointing to hidden geopolitical motives and shifting global economic order.
