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At the Trump-Xi Summit, China Will Have the Upper Hand
How Trump Should Approach AI Talks With China: Targeted Dialogue, Maximum PressureChris McGuire is a senior fellow for China and emerging technologies at the Council on Foreign Relations. Read his full analysis of the upcoming U.S.–China AI talks.President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping plan to discuss AI when they meet in Beijing—as they should. AI is reshaping the global economy and the modern battlefield, and the most powerful AI models are doubling in capability every four months.The two governments are reportedly considering establishing an AI safety dialogue, which China has long sought. The United States and China do have a shared interest in preventing the release of AI models with certain dangerous capabilities. However, the Chinese government’s actual willingness to make and abide by robust AI safety commitments is low. Beijing views these dialogues primarily as an opportunity to expand China’s access to U.S. technology and close the AI gap.This dynamic was on full display in 2024, during the sole dialogue between the U.S. and Chinese governments on AI safety. The United States sent technical experts to outline shared risks; China sent diplomats to complain about export controls on AI chips. Chinese AI companies and government leaders have repeatedly stated that U.S. export controls are the single biggest constraint on China’s AI development.The United States retains about an eight month lead over China in AI—a significant margin, but a gap that China believes it can overcome. As AI capabilities rapidly advance, Chinese AI-enabled cyberattacks and military operations may soon become the largest national security threat the United States and its allies face. The smaller the gap, the more China can hold the United States at risk and capture global market share. So long as China believes it has a chance of catching up with the United States in AI and does not fear reprisal from the United States for potential noncompliance, an effective U.S.-China agreement on AI safety is unattainable.But if the U.S. lead expanded from eight months to eighteen or twenty-four—an eternity in AI development—Beijing would have strong incentives to negotiate, and to comply, fearing detection and reprisal enabled by superior U.S. models. It could achieve this by strengthening export controls that prevent China from making, buying, or renting U.S. AI chips, which China’s AI development is extremely dependent on.Trump’s goal in Beijing should not be to reach an agre...
Trump-Xi meeting: Could China, US form a 'G2'? - Al Jazeera
US President Donald Trump is set to arrive in Beijing on Wednesday for a two-day summit with China’s President Xi Jinping, marking the two leaders’ first face-to-face talks six months after reaching a trade war truce.The summit, which was delayed from March because of the US-Israeli war on Iran, comes as Trump needs a foreign policy win amid dissatisfaction at home over the latest Middle East quagmire.Recommended Stories list of 3 itemslist 1 of 3Trump to discuss Iran with Xi Jinping during China visit: Officialslist 2 of 3‘Stupid’: Trump rejects Iran response to US peace proposallist 3 of 3Trump says he will discuss arms sales to Taiwan in meeting with China’s Xiend of listUS-China ties have also been strained by the war, which has damaged Beijing’s economy. Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Washington’s competing blockade of Iranian ports have left Chinese ships stranded and severely affected China’s crude oil imports, half of which are shipped from the Middle East.Trump is likely to renew calls for China to join an “international operation” to open the Strait of Hormuz, which Beijing has so far resisted. Xi is expected to look for gains on pressing issues, including trade, rare-earth minerals and a US recognition of China’s rights over self-ruling Taiwan.As Trump threatens to quite NATO over the alliance’s refusal to back the US-Israeli war on Iran, further distancing the US from its traditional allies, the Trump-Xi summit has revitalised the idea of a Group of Two (G2) – an informal grouping in which the world’s two largest superpowers could steer the world’s collective future.What is a Group of Two – or ‘G2’?The concept of a “G2” between China and the US – similar to the Group of Seven (G7) or Group of 20 (G20) forums gathering the world’s leading industrialised economies – was originally proposed by prominent US economist C Fred Bergsten in 2005.In its original definition, it advocated for a shared responsibility for the world’s two top economies to stabilise global markets and tackle issues of global concern, rather than suggesting a hegemony over others.The concept gained traction during the administration of former US President Barack Obama, who established the Strategic and Economic Dialogue (S&ED) with Chinese President Hu Jintao in 2009 to seek “positive, cooperative, and comprehensive” US-China relations, according to a White House communique at the time.The Obama team believed that strategic engagement with China would be necessary t...
US-China relations: What to expect from the Trump-Xi summit
The meeting will mark the first visit to China by a US president since November 2017, when Trump last visited. Nonetheless, Trump and Xi have met repeatedly over the years. Most recently, in 2025 in Busan, South Korea, the two leaders gathered for a meeting that resulted in the lowering of US tariffs on Chinese imports from 57% to 47%.
China may not offer breakthroughs when Trump meets Xi because Beijing ...
Trump might also attend the November Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting in Shenzhen, China. And Xi could come to the Group of 20 summit the following month at Trump's resort in Doral ...
