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Projected Impact of Fertilizer Shortages on Crops
The potential correlation between reduced fertilizer availability and crop yield losses in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Primary Sources
What Fertilizer Crises Reveal About Africa's Agricultural ... - LinkedIn
Fertilizers remain a critical component of agricultural productivity, contributing substantially to crop yields worldwide. However, fertilizer use across Africa is considerably lower than the global average, reflecting long-standing challenges related to affordability, access, and infrastructure. In this context, the fertilizer crisis did not introduce new weaknesses as much as it amplified existing ones. Recently published in International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, a comparative analysis across Kenya, Ghana, and Morocco provides timely insights into how these distinct systems responded to the same global shock. These countries represent distinct fertilizer market structures typical across much of Africa. Ghana operates a largely subsidy-driven system with full reliance on imports. Kenya’s market is more liberalized, with a strong role for private sector distribution but still dependent on imports. Morocco, by contrast, benefits from domestic fertilizer production and a more centralized, state-supported system. These structural differences shaped how the crisis was experienced at both national and farm-levels. Graphical abstract of Njoroge et al. 2026. Fragile Supply Chains Force Compromise Across all three countries, APNI Scientists found fertilizer affordability to be the most immediate constraint. Price increases were widespread and often substantial, accompanied by rising transport costs. Availability also declined in several regions, particularly in Ghana and Kenya, where supply chains were more exposed to international disruptions. Accessibility was further affected as farmers faced delays and, in some cases, had to travel longer distances to secure inputs. Even in contexts where fertilizers remained available, the timing and reliability of supply were compromised. “These constraints translated directly into changes in farmer behaviour. Many farmers reduced the quantities of fertilizer applied, delayed purchases, or adjusted cropping decisions. In some cases, farmers reduced the area under cultivation or shifted to crops requiring fewer inputs.” - Dr. Samuel Njoroge, APNI Scientist and Lead Author. While such responses reflect a degree of adaptability, they also point to likely declines in productivity, given the well-established relationship between nutrient application and crop yields. The study also highlighted important differences in how farmers were able to respond. Farmers with access to credit or diversified income sourc...
Fertilizer Shortages Threaten Africa's Future Food Supply
Equity Bank Group Managing Director and CEO Dr. James Mwangi have warned that Africa's food security is at risk due to fertilizer supply decline.
Africa's Resilience to Fertilizer Crises and Global Shocks
Africa's exposure to global fertilizer markets represents a structural vulnerability. Supply chain disruptions, price volatility, and limited bargaining power in international markets can quickly translate into reduced input use and, ultimately, lower agricultural output.
What Fertilizer Crises Reveal About Africa's Agricultural Resilience ...
However, fertilizer use across Africa is considerably lower than the global average, reflecting long-standing challenges related to affordability, access, and ...
