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2026 GCC Economic Growth Projections
Comparison of expected real GDP growth for major GCC economies.
Primary Sources
The GCC has unity, it now needs joint defence and development
Beyond supporting de-escalation and peace, GCC states need to work towards joint defence, energy security and economic development.Amid the continuing escalation in the region, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) pursues a balanced diplomatic policy grounded in calls for negotiation and support for political processes aimed at ending the conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran. GCC members stand by the principles of good neighbourliness and enhancing regional stability and are unified in their opposition to aggression and destabilisation.In the coming months and years, Gulf unity can be taken even further by pursuing regional security arrangements, establishing new energy routes and expanding important economic integration projects that would guarantee development and stability.In the present moment, the GCC must continue to make clear its categorical rejection of any attempt to seize control of the Strait of Hormuz or use it as a pressure card. The Gulf states cannot and will not be held hostage under any circumstances.Imposing restrictions or levies on freedom of navigation through the strait constitutes a flagrant violation of international law: the Strait of Hormuz is a natural waterway governed by the law of the sea, which guarantees freedom of passage, and it cannot be treated as a channel subject to sovereign control or political extortion. Any attempt to impose a new reality or alter its legal status will be met with firm action from the GCC states.It bears recalling that the strait is not the preserve of a single party. Its western shore falls within the territories of GCC member states: the Sultanate of Oman and the United Arab Emirates. This is a reality that reflects the complex geographical and legal character of the strait, and confirms the impossibility of monopolising or controlling this critical waterway.The GCC states must continue to stand unified in the rejection of Iranian aggression. No attack can be legally justified under the pretext of “self-defence”. Going down the path of aggression has only further isolated Iran from the region and the rest of the world; this has cost it much of the regional sympathy it once enjoyed.In this context, it is worth noting that the continuation of tension serves multiple parties, whether directly or indirectly, at the expense of regional stability. Iran’s policies in the region, including support for armed groups, the undermining of the principle of good-neighbourliness, and the stoking of...
GCC economies stay resilient as IMF trims regional outlook
Growth across the GCC economies is expected to moderate in 2026 as geopolitical tensions and disruptions to energy trade routes weigh on the wider Middle East and North Africa (Mena) region, but forecasts by the International Monetary Fund and other global institutions suggest the bloc’s fundamentals remain strong enough to support a recovery path over the medium term.In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF cut Mena’s real GDP growth forecast for this year to 1.1 per cent — a downward revision of 2.8 percentage points from its January estimate — reflecting the economic fallout from the US-Iran conflict and supply disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for global energy trade.Recommended For You Despite the downgrade, the GCC’s diversified policy frameworks, infrastructure investment pipelines and strong fiscal buffers are expected to cushion the impact compared with several other regional economies.Saudi Arabia, the region’s largest economy, is projected to expand by 3.1 per cent this year after only a modest downward revision of about 1.4 percentage points. The IMF said the kingdom’s ability to redirect crude exports through Red Sea pipeline routes helped mitigate supply risks associated with shipping disruptions in the Gulf. Growth is forecast to strengthen further to 4.5 per cent in 2027 as non-oil sectors continue to gain traction under Vision 2030 reforms.The UAE is also expected to maintain steady momentum despite global headwinds. The IMF revised the country’s 2026 growth forecast to 3.1 per cent, down by 1.9 percentage points from earlier projections. Economists attribute the resilience to strong non-oil activity, expanding trade partnerships under Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements, and continued investment inflows into logistics, finance and technology sectors.Oman is forecast to record the fastest growth among GCC economies this year at about 3.5 per cent, even after a slight downward adjustment of 0.5 percentage points. Fiscal reforms and improved debt management continue to support investor confidence in the sultanate’s medium-term outlook.Elsewhere in the bloc, Kuwait’s economy is projected to contract by around 0.6 per cent following a sharp revision of 4.5 percentage points, while Bahrain is expected to see a marginal contraction of 0.5 per cent after a downgrade of nearly 3.8 percentage points. Analysts say both economies remain sensitive to oil revenue fluctuations and regional trade disruptions but reta...
Saudi Arabia: Confronting security challenges in the region
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia – The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and the United States discussed the latest developments in the region, within the framework of ...
Introductory Remarks at the IMF's Middle East and Central Asia ...
In this speech launching the IMF's April 2026 Regional Economic Outlook for the Middle East and Central Asia, Jihad Azour, Director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department, highlights how the outbreak of war has delivered a severe and multifaceted shock to one of the world's most strategically important economic corridors, disrupting three pillars of stability: energy markets, trade ...
